IT will be a surprise if Covid-19 case numbers stay low in Scotland over the next fortnight, a leading public health expert has said.
Professor Devi Sridhar, who advises the Scottish Government on their Covid-19 response, expressed concern over England’s reopening timetable – which saw some pubs open their doors at 6am today.
The expert has previously warned that Scotland is unlikely to eliminate coronavirus without the co-operation of England, but the prevalence of the virus south of the Border is much higher.
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon told the daily government briefing yesterday that it is estimated Scotland’s Covid-19 is five times lower than England’s at present.
READ MORE: New Scientist analysis: Scotland's virus fight hampered by England
In England, pubs, restaurants, bars are opening up everywhere besides Leicester, which was put back on local lockdown this week after cases spiked in the city.
Writing on Twitter this morning, Sridhar said: “Would be surprised to see case numbers stay low over next 2 weeks. Hearing of people renting party buses to escape Leicester lockdown & head to pubs outside, & same for Scottish people crossing border to get into pubs. Pubs/bars highest risk environment for virus to spread.”
Pointing to a map created by the Financial Times, which shows the level of Covid-19 infections across the UK’s nations and regions, Sridhar stressed the prevalence of the virus in some areas is concerning as England reopens.
If entire UK was light yellow, I’d be more relaxed as little virus circulating esp if number in single digits. But people from yellow areas going into darker areas with community transmission into pubs/bars & returning home to yellow areas will set off chains of infections. pic.twitter.com/fVSZMNtOgg
— Devi Sridhar (@devisridhar) July 4, 2020
“If entire UK was light yellow, I’d be more relaxed as little virus circulating esp if number in single digits,” she wrote. “But people from yellow areas going into darker areas with community transmission into pubs/bars & returning home to yellow areas will set off chains of infections.”
The professor then shared a graphic demonstrating the riskiest activities during the pandemic, ranging from opening the mail which is low risk, going to a library which is medium risk, or going to a bar or cinema which are some of the highest risk things to do.
Bars/pubs are THE highest risk for virus to spread as US states like Texas and California have painfully learned. Repeating others’ mistakes instead of learning from them. pic.twitter.com/gTZ4tvm9C5
— Devi Sridhar (@devisridhar) July 4, 2020
She went on: “Bars/pubs are THE highest risk for virus to spread as US states like Texas and California have painfully learned. Repeating others’ mistakes instead of learning from them.”
Echoing comments she made in an interview with the New Scientist this week, Sridhar repeated: “Shows Zero-Covid Scotland can only happen w/ England’s cooperation.
“Pubs open in Scotland in 2 weeks when Covid would have been negligible & much safer to go out. ‘Zero COVID’ approach means back to normality. But not possible right now given divergent strategies among nations.”
Last night Prime Minister Boris Johnson gave a Downing Street press conference asking people in England to behave responsibly and safely over the weekend.
Before pubs opened at 6am, he told people “we are not out of the woods yet” and added: “Let’s not blow it.”
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