THE UK’s coronavirus outbreak has been deadlier than Downing Street’s scientific advisers anticipated before lockdown was implemented, new documents show.
Yesterday, as pubs and restaurants prepared to reopen in England, a number of official government documents on the Covid-19 pandemic were published by the Government Office for Science.
One document, submitted to ministers on March 29, revealed the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) estimated that 50,000 people would die from March to September if compliance with lockdown restrictions was low.
Campaigning journalist Stefan Simanowitz flagged up the contents of the document on Twitter.
These newly released SAGE documents from 29 March, show that SAGE’S Reasonable Worst Case scenario had a maximum of 50,000 direct deaths between March & Sept.
— Stefan Simanowitz (@StefSimanowitz) July 3, 2020
Their best scenario was 6,000.
We’ve already exceeded their worst scenario...& it’s only July! https://t.co/sptdsjzArX pic.twitter.com/rKpXL1hTFv
As of yesterday the UK’s official Covid-19 death toll was 44,000 – while figures from the Office for National Statistics, which also counts those who have died with suspected coronavirus in its numbers, show the 50,000 mark was reached last month.
Sage’s best-case scenario, which included “good compliance” with lockdown rules in its modelling, was about 6000 coronavirus deaths. For the deaths to be kept at that level, 75% of families would have had to follow the rules at the height of lockdown.
The group’s worst-case model estimated there would be 50,000 deaths by September if half of households ignored “Stay at Home” instructions, and three in 10 symptomatic people ignored isolation rules.
According to studies from Oxford University, 70% of people living in the UK have followed social distancing and lockdown rules since the beginning of the crisis.
The documents were published just hours before England’s pubs, restaurants, hairdressers and cinemas reopened today. Boris Johnson also cut the two-metre rule to just one to allow hospitality businesses to get up and running after months of lockdown.
READ MORE: Pubs reopen in England, sparking concern for Scots Covid-19 rate
With England’s coronavirus level estimated to be about five times higher than Scotland’s, Professor Devi Sridhar, who advises the Scottish Government on their response to the crisis, gave a warning as England opened up this morning.
The professor said: “Would be surprised to see case numbers stay low over next 2 weeks. Hearing of people renting party buses to escape Leicester lockdown & head to pubs outside, & same for Scottish people crossing border to get into pubs. Pubs/bars highest risk environment for virus to spread.”
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