INCREASING support for independence is "not just a blip", according to a political polling expert.
Several surveys published this year have suggested the majority of Scots now back a Yes vote. A Panelbase study published over the weekend put support for independence at 54%.
During a webinar for the John Smith Centre, hosted by former Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale, Psephologist Mark Diffley said there was a pattern emerging showing a sustained shift on the public's opinion on the constitutional question.
He explained that while support for Scottish independence rose after the Brexit vote, it did not last. However, results now are "much more significant" and have been steadily growing for six to eight months, Diffley added.
He commented: "It seems that if there was a choice to be in an independent Scotland that was within the EU, that would be preferable to being part of the UK but out of the EU. Previous No voters, who voted to stay in the UK but also wanted to stay within the EU, are moving more to Yes.
"Of course it does go the other way – people who voted for an independent Scotland who also voted for Brexit, some would rather now be in the UK outside of Europe. But that first group is much larger."
READ MORE: Support for Scottish independence skyrockets in latest Panelbase poll
The polling expert added: "What is quite interesting is that if we bookend this, immediately after the EU referendum, the weekend after, there were two or three polls that suggested support for independence had gone up. But that didn't last, it was almost a knee-jerk reaction to what had happened in the Brexit vote.
"But we are now starting to see a pattern emerging from enough polls to suggest this is not just a blip. That something a little more significant – both in the number of polls and the level of support and in terms of the length of time – this has been noticeable for a good six to eight months now.
"It is a really fascinating time in Scottish politics at the moment. You can see, we are starting to see the mood of the nation change."
On UK politics, Diffley said the polls are "not worth sweating over at the minute" since the next General Election is still four years off. Around four months out from an election is when they really start to become useful, he argued.
The polling expert added that the new UK Labour leader Keir Starmer had made a very positive first impression, and was polling higher in "competence" surveys than Boris Johnson.
READ MORE: Unionists slammed for 'low' attack on ex-Ipsos Mori pollster
During the same discussion, Dugdale said that her own experience of private polling as the former Scottish Labour leader had revealed people thought of her as "nice, authentic, but much more like a nursery teacher than a first minister".
She added: "I wasn't massively surprised. In fact, in a way, I was pleased, as we had had a massive focus on education. So for the public to have picked up an affinity with children and young people showed there was something there cutting through.
"I'd much rather have had that set of outcomes, than some of the other possibilities that could have come from that."
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