MORE than two-thirds of Labour MPs expect Scotland to become an independent country by 2030, polling suggests.
Research carried out for The UK in a Changing Europe think tank polled Commons members on their attitudes towards the prospect of the Union breaking up.
MPs were asked about the likelihood of Scottish and Welsh independence, as well as Irish unification, over the next decade.
The research, carried out by Ipsos Mori before the Covid-19 crisis began, found 68% of Labour representatives expected Scotland to be a sovereign nation within 10 years. One in 10 Tory MPs also considered the prospect to be likely.
Just under one in three Labour members thought Scottish independence was unlikely, while 88% of Tories did.
READ MORE: Support for Scottish independence skyrockets in latest Panelbase poll
The study, conducted in January and February, also recorded that more than half of Labour MPs expect Northern Ireland to vote to join the Republic. Almost a third of Tory representatives thought likewise.
Fourteen per cent of Labour MPs thought Welsh independence is likely by 2030, but no Tory representatives did.
The results of the survey were published on The UK in a Changing Europe’s website today. Commenting, the think tank’s Dr Alan Wager wrote: “A key takeaway from our survey is that a substantial minority of MPs, and a majority of Labour MPs, are alive to the real possibility of further constitutional rupture over the next decade.
“Meanwhile, the vast majority of Conservative MPs may be sleepwalking into a decade marked by major constitutional ruptures.
“Perhaps the key lesson from the referendums of 2014 and 2016 – if you are about to enter into an existential constitutional referendum against an insurgent with their tails up, you had better come prepared with a plan – does not appear to have been learned by the Conservative (and don’t forget Unionist) Party.”
READ MORE: Keir Starmer doubles down on Scottish Labour's indyref2 stance
The latest polling on Scottish independence puts support for a Yes vote at 54%. The SNP are also on track to secure a comfortable majority at next year's Holyrood elections.
In June, Keir Starmer backed Scottish Labour’s unconditional rejection of a second independence referendum.
He said “breaking up” as the UK deals with the economic upheaval of the coronavirus crisis is the “wrong thing to do”.
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