Why a pro-independence Holyrood majority won't get indyref2

But things began to change around the end of September 2019 – why? This is an important question because the timing suggests that the Covid-19 crisis may not be the only factor boosting Yes.

The main event of these weeks was the civil war in the Tory Party leading to 21 pro-EU Tory MPs being expelled from the parliamentary party, although it cost Boris his parliamentary majority. Also, on August 29, Ruth Davidson resigned as Scottish Conservative leader, signalling her own disapproval of the Boris regime.

Result: after September, you can see a sudden sharp fall in the number of independence “don’t-knows” – which is where most of last year’s new, pro-indy support came from. The undecideds fell from 11% at the very start of September 2019, to 6% by the end of November. That is a huge shift towards the independence camp, probably among pro-EU voters.

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The most likely conclusion is that politically centrist Scots had decided the Boris Government was a shambles, with the UK heading for a hard Brexit which would bring serious economic uncertainty in its wake. Independence, therefore, seemed a less dangerous course.

However, the December General Election campaign saw a fresh rise in the undecideds, going back up to 9% by the start of February. But this was not people moving out of the Yes camp. Rather it was a fresh cohort of former Nos getting fed up with Boris. Again, put this down to a reaction among centrist voters to Brexit – on January 23, 2020, the EU Withdrawal Act finally received Royal Assent.

Yet in February (i.e. before Covid-19), support for independence was still only at 46%, level with No. The polls stayed that way until the beginning of April. This ominous hiatus suggests the Brexit factor was played out and pro-European sentiment in Scotland remained insufficient to put independence over the finishing line.

That’s not to say a hard Brexit next year (definitely on the cards) won’t re-animate the EU debate. But equally, the spectacular inability of Brussels to deal with the economic consequences of the pandemic may open up a new front in the Leave-Remain culture war.

The true jump in indy support comes only in April, when the Yes vote suddenly takes off, hitting 54% in the most recent polls. Interestingly, the undecided column remains around 7%, suggesting that there are still lots of former Nos waiting to be harvested. Obviously, this surge in Yes is a consequence of the Covid-19 crisis and the rise in popularity of the FM – the result of her empathetic public performance. Witness the large shift to Yes among women voters.

But this rise in support for independence is not specific to Scotland, which should make us slightly cautious. A similar reaction to the medical emergency can be seen in Wales. June’s Welsh Barometer poll showed that 25% of voters supported independence if there was a referendum the next day, the highest-ever level of support recorded. Polls in Northern Ireland are scarce on the ground, but one in late February revealed 45.4% for Irish re-unification versus 46.8% for remaining with the UK, with a significant 7.8% undecided. That leaves Northern Ireland on a knife edge.

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Can these poll ratings be sustained after the coronavirus crisis ends? Will Boris simply accept the dissolution of the United Kingdom? On the last question, we already know the answer: an emphatic no!

True, Boris and Co have had a terrible pandemic, exhibiting probably the worst political management of a crisis since the Suez debacle. But governments in chaos – particularly populist ones – always respond by diversion and stoking the fires of patriotism.

The last thing the old Etonian fop presently occupying Downing Street will do is let the UK break up on his watch. Boris does not give a fig about the economy. He is no technocrat and few of his ministerial team have any real political talent. They are a bunch of hedge fund gamblers (Chancellor Sunak), financial spivs (Rees-Mogg) and former PR hacks (Priti Patel).

Which makes it even more likely they intend to fight their way out of trouble by appealing to a counterfeit vision of Rule Britannia: damn Europe and fire all guns. Anybody in Scotland who thinks we can negotiate rationally with this bunch is barking.

Witness the Chancellor deliberately engineering his mini summer Budget to exclude Barnett consequentials, so the UK Treasury could intervene north of the Border itself. Hence the bogus legislation to create a UK “internal market” with its real intention to create a legal mechanism to override the elected Scottish Parliament. Just watch Boris use this mechanism to force Scotland to accept chlorinated chicken when he makes the inevitable U-turn during the US trade talks.

Boris knows that letting Scotland go will lead inevitably to Northern Ireland and ultimately Wales seceding. Ergo he will reject a call for a Section 30 order regardless of the outcome of the next Holyrood election. Indeed, he is barefaced enough to argue that any “super-majority” gained by the Yes forces via the list system is “undemocratic”.

Even in the best of circumstances we are not likely to see a second referendum in the next five years, using present constitutional tactics. During which window, Boris will take every opportunity to erode and undermine the Yes majority.

Which means the current Yes poll lead cannot not be taken as a guaranteed ticket to a second referendum. The surge in Yes support since April remains

fragile, especially given the deliberate tactic of the SNP Government to ignore the constitutional question during the pandemic. And that is before we see the full public and movement ramifications from the Salmond investigation by the Scottish Parliament.

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The true lesson of the polls is that we have to avoid over-confidence, which leads only to hubris. The SNP leadership is overconfident because it thinks an electoral victory will make Boris pliant – it won’t, which is why the absence of any Plan B is a glaring mistake.

Among activists, their belief in the FM’s undoubted charisma is understandable but charisma is not enough to move the British state – especially a British state with its back to the wall. And among those critical of the SNP leadership, winning a super-majority via the list system (whatever its merits) won’t impress Boris.

There may come a point when Holyrood simply has to bend to the sovereign will of the Scottish people and defy the British state – the only justification for a pro-indy list party. At that point, opinion polls will be the least of it.