LABOUR are the “weak link in the Unionist chain,” John Curtice has said.
Yesterday’s YouGov poll made grim reading for Richard Leonard and his colleagues, putting the party on 14% on both the constituency and list.
That’s a significant drop from where they were just four years ago. At the 2016 election, they won 19% on the list and 23% in the constituency.
That could see them with just 17 seats, down seven on the last election.
Chris Curtis, YouGov’s political research manager, said the poll numbers suggested Labour “would continue their trajectory of losing seats at every single election since devolution”.
With the poll also showing support for independence at 53%, some prominent Labour figures were questioning what that might mean for the party’s future.
Brian Roy, a former general secretary of the Scottish party, tweeted: “I suspect this will be the beginning of a sustained majority in favour of independence.
“The real question is how the UK Government and opposition parties in Scotland will react to a potential new ‘norm’ in Scottish politics.”
Meanwhile, yesterday’s survey also revealed that just 10% of voters think Leonard is doing well, while 37% believe he’s doing badly.
Humiliatingly for the party chief, when asked how they thought he was doing at his job, 53% of voters simply responded with “don’t know”.
Writing in the Times, Professor Curtice said Unionists should be concerned about Leonard’s invisible leadership.
The Tories were, he said, “unlikely to be able to save the Union on their own”.
Curtice said that much of the SNP’s boost in support was due to the collapse in Labour support.
He said: “More than one in four of those who voted Labour in last year’s General Election now say that they will back the SNP next May. They come from the ranks of those who voted Yes in 2014 but backed Labour last December.
“Persuading voters such as these that they do not need to vote SNP in order to realise their hopes and ambitions for Scotland will be crucial if Nicola Sturgeon is to be denied the majority that would put the Prime Minister on the back foot in his attempt to avoid another poll. The Conservatives are unlikely to win these voters over.
“By contrast, Sir Keir is relatively popular, including among Yes voters. However, his ability to win their votes has not been enhanced by his decision to join Mr Johnson in opposition to another independence referendum. Meanwhile, the party’s Scottish leader, Richard Leonard, still suffers from low electoral visibility. 53% of voters still say they do not know how well or badly he is doing. That should concern Mr Johnson just as much as Sir Keir.”
Many Labour MSPs looked enviously at the Tories’ swift removal of Jackson Carlaw last month.
Under Leonard’s leadership, the party slumped to fifth place at the European election and lost six of their seven Westminster seats at the General Election.
One Labour insider told The National: “He’s been utterly ineffective. Labour should have been holding the Scottish Government to account on their many, many failings over coronavirus. Where was he last week when the SQA results were published? We should have been all over that. It took us too long to respond. He’s a nice guy, but he needs to go.”
They thought it unlikely anything would change before next May.
Last month, Labour peer Lord Foulkes said Leonard would be putting his party first if he quit.
However, Leonard – an enthusiastic supporter of Jeremy Corbyn – does retain a huge personal support among left-wing party activists.
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