THE Scottish Government needs to drive home the benefits of being inside Europe but outside the UK, an expert on the EU has urged.
Kirsty Hughes says the post-independence “border question” needs to be addressed sooner rather than later as the Tories were already being more “active and aggressive” in opposing independence and “didn’t seem to mind being hypocritical by saying Brexit is good and the Northern Ireland/Britain border isn’t a problem – and then at the same time saying a Scottish border would be a problem”.
Hughes says Westminster’s likely line of argument that Scotland’s trade with England is three times greater than with the EU needs to be tackled head on.
“There is nothing you can do to suggest that Scottish/EU trade is bigger than Scottish/rUK so then you have to look at other things,” she says.
‘‘What are your estimates of how much more foreign investment an independent Scotland might attract? What are the benefits of having free movement of people? What is your green industrial strategy? What is your prediction over 10 years to how the structure of the economy may change – how Scotland may benefit from higher EU growth if EU growth remains higher than UK growth and so on.
“These are important in their own right but maybe there are some scenarios where by the time you have all that there is a benefit to leaving the UK.”
READ MORE: Gerry Hassan: A Scottish Border or a Great Divide?
She said the time to address the issue was now, when the UK is nearing the end of the transition period and it would soon be clear whether there would be no deal or a deal of some sort.
Once that happened, think tanks and academics would then look at what the repercussions would be should Scotland become independent and rejoin the EU, Hughes pointed out.
As these could well focus on the fact that trade with England is worth more than with the EU, the Scottish Government should be able to reply with its own estimates and its own scenarios, she said.
“It is a tricky issue and everyone can understand why they have not gone for it but it means you get this very simplistic Tory and Unionist rhetoric saying trade with the rest of the UK is three times bigger than with the EU as if that is a slam dunk.
Hughes pointed out that it was obvious that if there were custom checks on goods going to and from England from Scotland then there would be extra costs involved, but she said it was a mistake to think that the situation would be static.
“It is an economic hit but if it then allows you to do different things with your economy, including making it more green and being part of the EU green initiative, then maybe that is a counterbalance,” she said.
“The only way I can see the pro-independence side, including the Scottish Government, facing up to this is by moving beyond the static costs of borders to setting out some clear scenarios on the overall benefits of being in the EU and having more control over your long term green strategy.”
Hughes outlines her argument further in an article on the sceptical.scot website today.
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