WHAT’S THE STORY?

A ROW over a corrupt election by a dictator in a country far away was last night turning in to a genuine world crisis. Reports said that Russian forces were moving in to Belarus, presumably to crack down on the demonstrations against Alexander Lukashenko, the country’s president. He has been in power since 1994 and earlier this month claimed victory in a general election with 80.1% of the vote.

Some dictators have performed better in elections. Adolf Hitler’s Nazis got 92% in the November, 1933 election, but then he’d already banned all the opposition parties. At least Lukashenko allowed an opponent, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, and even with the polls almost certainly rigged she managed to get some votes.

The result triggered huge protests in Belarus against Lukashenko, who is usually called the last dictator in Europe. Pro-democracy demonstrators have been savagely beaten and flung in jail. One person was allegedly killed, causing a wave of protests around the world.

It was being reported in some quarters last night that Lukashenko was prepared to allow new elections and a referendum on the constitution, but he’s offered that before.

Meanwhile, in fear for her safety, Tikhanovskaya has fled to neighbouring Lithuania, where she says she is standing by to take power if Lukashenko is toppled.

WHO IS LUKASHENKO?

EUROPE’S “last dictator” will be 66 in a fortnight. He was born and raised in Kopys which was then in the Vitebsk Oblast of the Byelorussian Soviet Socialist Republic. He studied agriculture, then served in the political unit of the Soviet Army in Minsk. He was the official deputy to the USSR council and voted against the state’s dissolution.

Ironically, given his later career, he rose to power on an anti-corruption policy and became the first president of Belarus in 1994. No one else has had the job since.

Nearly all the subsequent elections have been condemned by observers as rigged, and throughout his 26 years in power Lukashenko has had no hesitation in having opponents and journalists locked up for various spurious crimes.

He knows he is currently under threat, and told a meeting at a state-owned factory yesterday: “We’ve held elections. Until you’ve killed me there won’t be any new elections.”

He then appeared to offer a compromise: “We’ll put the changes to a referendum, and I’ll hand over my constitutional powers. But not under pressure or because of the street.”

Significantly these comments were quoted by the country’s official Belta news agency.

He added: “Yes, I’m not a saint. You know my harsh side. I’m not eternal. But if you drag down the first president you’ll drag down neighbouring countries and all the rest.” So a gamble from him, and one that will involve Russia’s help.

WHAT MAKE BELARUS IMPORTANT?

LANDLOCKED between Poland, Ukraine, Russia and the Baltic countries of Lithuania and Latvia, Belarus is seen by Russians as a buffer between them and Europe. Lukashenko has kept his position because he plays up that buffer role to maintain the energy supplies and other imports that only Russia can give his country. Russia’s gas and oil exports to the west also go through Belarus.

WHAT IS THE EU SAYING?

EUROPEAN Council president Charles Michel has convened an emergency summit of EU leaders to discuss the presidential election in Belarus and the violence in the wake of protests against the result.

Michel tweeted that “the people of Belarus have the right to decide on their future and freely elect their leader” as he said the video conference would take place tomorrow at 11am UK time.

“Violence against protesters is unacceptable and cannot be allowed,” he added.

The 27 EU foreign ministers said on Friday that the elections were neither free nor fair and that they refuse to accept the results of the polls, as announced by the Belarus electoral commission.

WHAT DID THE UK GOVERNMENT SAY?

DOES anyone care what an ex-EU former imperial power with a tawdry leadership is saying? For the record, Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab has tweeted: “The violence against peaceful protestors in Belarus is appalling. The UK does not accept the results of this fraudulent presidential election.”

Yep, Lukashenko will be quaking in his boots at that one.

MORE TO THE POINT, WHAT’S VLADIMIR PUTIN SAYING?

IT’S what he is doing that really counts. Convoys of army trucks, including the Russian equivalents of army lock-up lorries, were yesterday evening spotted heading towards the border with Belarus from where it is a straight drive to Minsk.

Putin is known to intensely dislike Lukashenko, who likes to play tricks on the strongman Russian leader – he once left him bags of potatoes as a present. Yet he cannot allow Lukashenko to be toppled by public protest, as that would end Putin’s aim of greater Russian influence over Eastern Europe.

Many commentators are pointing to Putin’ actions in Ukraine and his annexation of Crimea as a possible precursor to his likely conduct. Belarus has not previously indicated any opposition to Putin and the Russian leader will presumably get a free hand to do what he wants.

Putin has said he is ready to assist in Lukashenko’s efforts to maintain power, according to a Kremlin statement which cited a collective military pact.

The statement alleged that external pressure was being applied to the Eastern European country, without saying where from, while Lukashenko has claimed NATO forces are massing against his country. The USA has warned Russia not to meddle. It’s all getting a bit worrying, frankly,