WELL that put the cat among the pigeons. Whilst a sizable number of people in the madhouse of Scottish political Twitter were still picking over the bones of the Kirsty Wark’s strangely confused documentary, yet another opinion poll showed a 55% lead for Yes.
Panelbase had barely crunched the numbers and the seethe emanated like garlic bread. Sometimes Scottish political Twitter can be like the drunken revelries of an old Greek restaurant when the waiter smashes plates on the floor and they break up into a hundred splintered shapes. This is the discourse as broken fragments where debates are held fleetingly and never in the fullness. But not all that passes by on Twitter is malevolent or stupid.
Fragmentary debates can be revealing and for a few unmissable hours nuanced arguments were thrown into the middle of the floor. First Minister Nicola Sturgeon tweeted “Lots of work to do, fellow #Yes supporters to persuade even more people – but the momentum is very clearly with us.” It is short, reasonable and drained of any hyped emotion, but the message could not be clearer. There is a strong hint of a campaign to come and the hard work that must be done to convert polling into real votes. The language says it all, beginning with fellow Yes supporters and ending with the inclusive word “us” speaks volumes.
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However much Sturgeon’s cautious pragmatism irritates those straining at the leash, she has placed herself with a movement that now has measurable momentum. OK, it is not the shrill screams of “freedom” but a very heavy hint that successive polls are good news and, as they say in sporting cliché, it’s game on.
I struggle to fully comprehend those that undermine Sturgeon. She has many plates to juggle, one of which is to demonstrate that she can lead an independent nation. That is a bigger and more decisive task than the rest of us have been burdened with. Do we truly expect her to march to Bannockburn wearing a tartan face mask every morning to reassure us that she cares about self-determination?
Another instant response came from the writer and journalist Jane Graham, who reacted to the polls by saying: “Many now pro-indy Scots don’t consider themselves proponents of nationalism but simply see independence as the only option to cut ties with a naturally Tory country. [The] SNP for many is [the] best choice for a progressive government, regardless of thoughts re indie. UK media just doesn’t get it.”
It is a sentiment that speaks to my own views. It staggers me that so many bright people, many of them within the ranks of both the Labour Party and the LibDems, here and south of the Border, still see Scottish independence as a malign nationalist movement bristling on the brink of foaming fascism.
Characterising the Yes movement in such reductive ways may suit crass party-political framing but it demonstrates how out of touch those parties are with mainstream Scottish public opinion.
For the record, the poll established that 42% of 2019 Labour voters are Yes and 22% of No voters in 2014 have switched to Yes.
Skotia’s Michael Gray, a consistent presence on social media, argued: “Support for Scottish independence grows even further to 55% in new poll, flipping the exact result six years ago. With the Tories, Boris and Brexit support will go higher and higher.”
This was a combustible suggestion in the eyes of the Conservative MSP Dean Lockhart, who rushed to bemoan the trolling symmetry of the latest poll: “It’s funny how a 55/45 majority in a couple of polls has suddenly become ‘the overwhelming majority of Scots'," he fulminated. “A 55/45 majority in the largest democratic exercise Scotland has ever undertaken, less than six years since the vote took place, is apparently meaningless.”
To be fair to Dean it was at least a new angle on the age-old trope of “once in a generation”, that much trumpeted promise that was so deeply embedded in the last referendum that no-one can quite remember who said it or where it was promised.
As a great fan of the fecklessness of Generation X with a son who is decidedly Gen Z, I am a devoted student of the evasive ways that the word “generation” can be deployed, so it was touching to watch the Conservative Party wrestle with generational concern.
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At the emotional height of the exams controversy, the noisy claimed that the King Herod of Highers, John Swinney, was destroying the lives of a generation of young Scots. It was a short-lived concern now those who were having their lives ruined cannot be trusted to contribute to the democracy and be allowed their first chance to vote in a referendum.
Once in a generation is like knicker elastic, stretched to incredulity to suit those that would deny democracy for young people.
Watch as the Tories’ much trumpeted respect for our young people recedes even further into the twilight in the months ahead – support for Scottish independence among those aged 16-34 has grown to 72%. That is not just game on, it’s a cricket score.
By far the most revealing issue that broke this week was the franchise itself. It was fascinating to see so many curdled commentators concede that there will be a referendum and have moved on to the question of who should be allowed to vote? It was a Section 30 order by proxy handed to us by the electoral commission of Twitter.
Despite the answer having been set down in the 2020 Referendum Act, Andrew Neil was adamant he knew better – “The test would be simple. 1. Born in Scotland. 2. On UK electoral register. End of.”
Except that when people conclude their Twitter comments with “end of”, you can be sure it is not. Councillor Elena Whitham, Ayrshire leading Ska Girl, saw an immediate flaw in Neil’s theory: “Nope,” she wrote waspishly. “If Scotland is your home and you are registered to vote in Scotland, you get to vote.” Adding with a swipe across the kisser of Neil’s divisive nationalism: “You are not taking my English husband’s franchise away from him.”
Martin Coyle made a point that many others observed, why the desire to shift the goalposts on who could vote and change the franchise of a referendum that was praised for its democracy: “Very telling that the likes of Andrew Neil is all over Twitter today arguing the vote should be extended to Scots not normally resident in Scotland. No idea if there has been any polling on how the diaspora would vote, but reeks of growing desperation.”
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Unquestionably, the reek of desperation thickened, as those unhappy with the polling chose to shoot the messenger and change the rules.
Bella Caledonia argued back: “The franchise isn’t up for debate and any attempt to alter it will be seen as desperation. What the Unionists will have to do is construct a vision of the future, something they are incapable of doing. However, the debate raises another question – which is the defence of the principle that the basis of the franchise be civic and open to anyone making their life here. Means and ends matter.”
The former MP Stephen Gethins was adamant that any attempt to forge a franchise on ethnicity was anathema to him: “Surely those who live and work in Scotland and for whom it is their home (regardless of place of birth) should have a say in Scotland’s future? Accident of birth might suit the House of Lords but not a modern democracy.”
It may have only been a fleeting four hours on a wholly unreliable social media platform, but panic has set in. And the band is back on the road.
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