WITH the next Scottish Parliament election fewer than eight months away, voting strategy has emerged as a major topic of conversation in the Yes movement.

Both votes SNP or a second “list” vote for another pro-independence party? It’s a big question and the office bearers of Tinto SNP have spent a lot of time researching the issue. This is their considered view and whether you agree or disagree, let us know at community@thenational.scot.

They said: “In 2021, we face a changed world: Covid-19, Brexit and five years of demographic change have seen to that. In 2016 it was touch and go whether a pro-indy majority could be maintained within the Parliament. In 2021, that is emphatically not the case. Opinion polls are now showing a consistent majority for Yes.

“Westminster granted a Section 30 order for the referendum in 2014 because the SNP won an outright majority in the 2011 election. Political analysts agree that to demonstrate a popular mandate for a second independence referendum, the SNP will need to replicate the success it achieved in 2011 and secure an outright majority in the election.

“However, despite riding high in recent opinion polls, securing that outright majority may prove significantly more difficult than it did in 2011. Recent polls show the SNP on average at 53% (up 6.5%) and winning 68 constituencies, nine more than 2016, with the Unionists retaining five .

“However, in five of those nine additional constituencies, the projected SNP vote is less than 43%, making them vulnerable to a co-ordinated Unionist campaign of tactical voting to prevent the SNP from winning the 65 constituencies required.

“The SNP would then need to win seats on the regional list. Recent polls show that support for the SNP on the regional list has hardly increased since 2016 (at 42%, up 0.28%), so there is a real risk that the SNP may fail to pick up the additional regional list seats required to achieve an overall majority – particularly if some SNP voters use their regional list vote to back other pro-indy parties.

“Fact: seats for any other pro-indy party will be dismissed as an attempt to gerrymander the result which will provide the Tories with an excuse to disregard it and to press on to legislate to change the electoral system and remove control of elections from the Scottish Parliament.

“The SNP have always supported proportional representation. ‘Playing the system’ to try to deny opposition parties proportional representation is a pointless distraction. It is undemocratic, it will undermine the legitimacy of the result, and it may prove to be a spectacular own goal.

“The only way to secure that mandate is to return an overall SNP majority – both votes SNP.”

What do you as an individual or your Yes group think? Let us know at community@thenational.scot.