Medical advisers to the Scottish Government are warning levels of the coronavirus could reach their March peak by end of month as they called today for further action to contain the virus and highlighted the "risk" from hospitality.
The 14-page document was published just minutes before the First Minister Nicola Sturgeon gave her update to Holyrood this afternoon setting out the new measures she wants introduced to contain the infection spread.
The report was written by the chief medical officer Gregor Smith, the chief nursing officer Fiona McQueen and the national clinical director Jason Leitch.
It warned that the rate of transmission was currently the highest in the UK with the R number as high as 1.7 - well above the figure below "one" needed to curb the spread - and that cases were doubling every nine days.
READ MORE: IN FULL: Nicola Sturgeon's statement on new Covid restrictions in Scotland
"Currently we estimate the total number of infections is around 2900 per day, which represents around 13% of the peak in March/April. However, at the current rate of growth (7% increase per day), the number of infections would be at the level of the March peak by the end of October," it stated.
The advisors warned that over the second half of September, cases increased most rapidly for young people who could be at risk of developing the syndrome "long Covid". They added that cases are growing quickly in other age groups.
"Given Covid-19 affects older people more significantly, this increase will lead to an increase in deaths," it said.
"Cases in people aged over 80 have grown by 60% in the last week and cases for those aged 60-79 have more than doubled with an increase of almost 120%. Cases in the last 7 days per 100,000 people (to Monday 5th October) are now highest amongst 20-39 year olds."
The report said the situation in Central Scotland is of particular concern with several health board areas including Greater Glasgow and Clyde, Lanarkshire and Lothian recording more than 100 positive cases per 100,000 population in the past week. It noted a rate of 146.1 in Greater Glasgow and Clyde in this period.
"These three health board areas now account for three quarters of all new positive cases in Scotland over the past seven days and nearly two thirds of cumulative positive cases overall," it added.
"However, we can also now see that neighbouring areas in Ayrshire and Arran and Forth Valley are also showing an increase in excessof 55 cases per 100,000, suggesting there may be a ‘ripple’ effect spreading from existing areas of high case numbers and growth."
The report went on to say that any indoor setting where people mixes freely with members of different households and people of different age groups carries a number of risks.
It stated: "Hospitality therefore presents one of the highest risks. Generally this setting involves people of different ages with different individual risk profiles mixing with other households, or being seated in close proximity to other households, for more than 15 minutes.
"Depending on the nature of the premises, ventilation may be a problem and controlling the movement of people within the premises is difficult.
"Keeping surfaces clean is another challenge. Raised voices may be more likely in a crowded environment and the wearing of face masks may not be possible, presenting additional risks.
"A key risk factor is the one metre distancing arrangement, as evidence suggests that one metre distancing carries between two and 10 times the risk of two metre distancing."
The report continued: "The risks in hospitality are exacerbated by some behaviours. As people will generally visit with family or friends they will naturally be less concerned about distancing and this behaviour will also be influenced by the disinhibiting impact of alcohol."
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