THE Progress Scotland poll focused on areas of decision-making powers, the economy and currency options in an independent Scotland, in some case repeating questions from previous polls in order to assess trends. Some revealing data and trends emerge from the data.
Decision-making powers: there is strong support for the Scottish Parliament/Government to have more powers.
This includes more than six in 10 Scots (63%) agreeing with the proposition that the Scottish Parliament/Government should have control over all decisions affecting Scotland – this includes a majority from voters in every region of Scotland and a plurality of 2014 No voters and those who voted for Labour and the LibDems at the 2019 General Election.
Slightly more Scots think that the UK Government, rather than the Scottish Government, should have control over defence and foreign affairs (40% versus 38%) but this gap has closed since the last poll in October 2019 when there was a 12-point gap of 45% to 33%.
Around six in 10 (61%) support the Scottish Parliament/Government making decisions about Scotland’s future relationship with the EU (up four points since October) while disagreement with this proposition has fallen 5 points, from 27% to 22%, in this period.
Economy and independence: as with other issues in this poll, there is a revealing change in attitudes to the economy and independence. Nearly two-thirds of Scots (63%), rising to 75% of those with an opinion, say they would vote Yes if they were convinced it would be good for the Scottish economy.
As expected a large majority of 2014 Yes voters support this proposition; more surprising is that more 2014 No voters support this proposition than oppose it.
Among No voters who express an opinion more than half (52%) say they would vote Yes if they were convinced it would be good for the economy and 48% disagree.
In another change of attitudes in the last year, a plurality of voters now think independence would be good for the Scottish economy, by a margin of 11 points (45% agree with the proposition while 34% disagree).
Again, looking at the attitudes of 2014 voters is instructive here, with 18% of 2014 No voters believing that independence would be good for the economy in the long run, compared to only 9% of 2014 Yes voters who disagree.
Conversely, the proportion of Scots agreeing with the proposition that “independence would be more damaging to the Scottish economy than Brexit” has fallen from 42% in October 2019 to 37% now.
This now means that the attitudes on this question are broadly evenly split, with 39% disagreeing with the statement.
Currency options: This issue of currency options was important in 2014, though it is only mentioned as a “top 3” issue by 8% of respondents to this survey.
The most popular currency option of those posed in the survey is to keep the pound in the long term (54%) followed by almost a fifth (19%) who support transition to a new currency once economic tests are met.
Other options, such as joining the Euro (10%) or switching to a new currency in the short term (5%) gain little support.
Support for a longer-term transition to a new currency is below support for retaining the pound in all voting groups.
However it is the preferred option of almost a third (30%) of the 2014 Yes cohort (compared to 10% of No voters) and 30% of those who voted for the SNP in 2019 General Election (compared to between 9% and 12% of those who supported other parties).
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