A NEW poll on Scottish independence support found 58 per cent of people would support Yes at a future referendum, the highest figure ever recorded.
Ipsos MORI carried out the poll among more than 1000 voters in Scotland, also finding that 64% believe the UK Government should allow a new independence referendum to be held within the next five years if the SNP secures a majority at the 2021 Holyrood election.
READ MORE: Record public support for Scottish independence, new poll shows
Here’s five other things we learned in the major poll:
- The most powerful argument in favour of independence
The argument people find most convincing when it comes to independence is that the people of Scotland want to take the country in a very different political direction to England. Ipsos MORI found 64% of people agree this is convincing. Just behind that is the argument that Scotland should be independent because Westminster governments can’t be trusted to act in Scotland’s interests – 63% agreed this is convincing. Highlighting Scotland’s wish to remain in the EU is also effective with 57% finding it convincing.
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Ditching Jackson Carlaw might not have been the right move for the Tories
Former Scottish Tory leader Jackson Carlaw resigned this summer saying he didn’t think he was the right person to take the party into the 2021 election – his approval ratings were trailing and the Conservatives were polling poorly under his leadership. There were reports of unhappiness with Carlaw among the Holyrood party. But under Douglas Ross things haven’t exactly turned around the way they may have been hoping. The Tories are on track to gain 19% of the constituency votes at a Holyrood election – down a percentage point on a poll carried out a month before Carlaw resigned.
- Support for independence is growing among the older generations
Backing independence is inextricably associated with the younger generation – Ipsos MORI found 79% of those aged 16-24 support a Yes vote. But older generations are now more supportive of self-determination than ever before. Some 68% of those aged 25-34, 70% of those aged 35-44, 55% of those aged 45-54 and 57% of those aged 55-64 back independence.
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What arguments the Unionist side might go for
The case for the Union grows weaker by the day, but Ipsos MORI did ask voters what arguments from the No side would be convincing. The argument that “the different countries of the UK still have more in common than divides us” was effective, with 29% saying it was very convincing and 31% saying it was fairly convincing. The argument that independence would be a “major risk for Scotland’s economy and jobs” was very convincing to 35% and fairly convincing to 20%. These are the kinds of messages a Unionist campaign would be likely to go for, and what the Yes side will need to prepare for.
- What arguments don’t work for the Unionist side
The claim that “leaving the UK would leave Scotland isolated and weaker on the international stage” will not be an effective message at a future campaign it seems. Just 26% say that is a very convincing argument while 17% say it is fairly convincing. After Brexit and with the SNP clear about plans to rejoin the EU, painting Scotland as alone on the world stage would not be easy for the UK Government.
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