Scottish independence: Dirty tricks show we need a Plan B more than ever

The current backdrop has the Prime Minister of the UK telling us to prepare for the catastrophe of a No-Deal Brexit. Also, half the people in the rest of UK, mainly England of course, expect us to have a vote on independence in the next year. Time we as an SNP-led movement caught up with the positive English expectations for Scotland and deliver for next May.

It has been leaked that the Tory UK Government are “war gaming” ideas “to delay and then avoid a referendum in the event of a majority for the pro-independence Scottish National Party in next May’s elections”. This must be about the seventh clear signal that the previous SNP strategy of Plan A only will continue to yield nothing.

READ MORE: Scottish independence: Tory war game to stop referendum makes Plan B ‘vital’

In what world are devious war-gaming Tories going to roll over and give in to Scotland’s fair democratic demands if they are empowered by us, the SNP, the luxury of deciding for Scotland? Plan A only puts Boris in charge, as even a dodo could recognise from his referendum refusal in January.

Scotland should now be in a situation to free itself from this kamikaze cliff jump by the Tories, or more correctly the Scottish Government should be. However, the cold fact, which some of us may not want to admit to, is that we have no escape. The Scottish Government is unarmed to fight or even ameliorate the choices that Tories have foisted on us.

We have ended up here at the mercy of the Tories by our own hand. Unless we change our Plan-A-only policy, it doesn’t matter how much those who have the microphone boldly proclaim that Plan A has “momentum” or that Boris Johnson’s position is “unsustainable”. We as a movement will end up in the same place – stuck.

Evidently Plan A stalled in January. It was to be asked for at the “opportune” moment. Well, that was a clear strategic miscalculation – Boris said “no” and any alleged momentum vanished.

As for Boris Johnson’s position being unsustainable on Scotland, he has many other unsustainable positions. As far back as October 2018, the view of senior people in the Scottish Government was not to ask Theresa May for a Section 30 order to enable a referendum, as she would just say no. Hence, I wrote to Theresa May to get the Section 30 position clear in writing in November 2018 – and in December 2018, coincidentally 365 days before the December 2019 General Election, the “no” duly arrived.

I had hoped Theresa May’s answer in a Nash equilibrium-style scenario would logically change the thinking of our Scottish Government in response to UK Government’s actions, but not a blind bit of difference did it make.

Even worse, we waited until after the UK “Christmas present” elections to get the Boris veto confirmed, after he got an 80-seat majority for five years – and not a single vote in the House of Commons has the Tory Government lost since.

Had the Scottish Government done the formal Section 30 ask and got the predicted refusal before the election, we could have changed our manifesto to include a back-up plan. A plan to help us now at the Brexit damage hour. Instead, we gave the UK Prime Minister a consequence-free opportunity to say no to Scotland.

To compound matters right now, the SNP Scottish Government has absolutely no plan at all for independence if we have a No-Deal Brexit (7.6% GDP over a decade damage to economy) or a hard Brexit (4.9% GDP damage). That is no other plan than hang on for the rollercoaster ride. It has been almost four-and-a-half years since the Brexit vote – and face facts, the cupboard is bare.

Despite all the difficulties this causes, there is hope, and we can put it in our own hands. Many people, before they subscribe with their cash to the SNP annual online conference, will want to see Plan B on the agenda and debated alongside all the other worthy motions that go to conference each year.

The crux of this is that Plan B would take a General Election result as a constitutional mandate for independence in light of a referendum being refused. However, it gets better – an election with Plan B in the manifesto to back up Plan A changes the pre-election dynamic.

READ MORE: Senior figure says EU 'won't threaten to block Scotland' as Tory 'trick' fails

Remember Plan A is actually a good idea but with only one flaw – the Boris veto. That veto, however, is the strength of Plan B and would transform the Scottish elections into an effective referendum on independence as the UK Government have said no to a Section 30, most recently on September 16. I heard it myself at a distance of three yards from Boris Johnson when I asked him the question at the House of Commons Liaison Committee. The PM’s intransigence is our asset if we adopt Plan B.

Fifty-eight per cent of Scottish voters want Scotland to have an independence roof to prevent a flood of Tory policies we did not vote for damaging the fabric of society. Given independence support outstripping SNP support, it would seem wise to ensure 58% of Scots an electoral purpose at the election. We cannot dilly-dally havering for five years, leaving a large section of another generation ruined in poverty and Tory policies.

Plan B in play would transform the dynamic of the May Scottish Parliament election, if – and only if – SNP conference backs Plan B to get a mandate from the people and the Scottish Government is serious about seeking, respecting, and carrying out the established legitimate wish of the people at the ballot box. Current naysayers must either get on board or get a better plan that cannot be blocked by a UK PM on any whim.

Now some ask, what if Boris says no to independence? That query is due to conflating asking the people the question on independence to receiving the answer from the people on independence. Obviously, the UK Government wants to thwart the question being asked because it fears the answer from the Scottish people.

However, saying no to the relatively small number of people who are elected SNP politicians is very different to saying no to 58% of the electorate of a nation of 5.4 million people. That would be Lukashenko territory for the UK Government, or Donald Trump when he hinted that if he lost the election he might not stand down, when wiser heads then quickly counselled otherwise.

Some say we have to keep our plans secret – quite how we get a mandate for a secret plan remains a question that cannot be answered. Part of the allure for a few people of Plan A only was that there had to be a secret plan the Scottish Government was keeping in reserve. The actual secret was there was no secret. Secrets do not get democratic mandates. Simple. To get a mandate everyone must know.

The key is to establish the legitimacy of choice. Plan B lets us do this because at either a constitutional ballot box event, a referendum or an election, 58% of the people in a democracy get what they want. However, be warned that if we refuse to arm ourselves with the tools and a mechanism to translate that 58% into a legitimate expression for independence, then all is lost.

The point earlier in this article of taking you, reader, through only some of the missteps in our movement in the last few years is to illustrate that there is no preordained infallibility here and we can simply blow it all. Many movements have done this in the past; Bruce hesitated at Bannockburn, but those around him did not treat him like a deity. Instead they did the thinking and supplied the courage for him the night before, Bruce had the humility to accept, fortunately for Scotland. The point is that history and events turn on a sixpence. Plan B, to transform the Scottish elections in the dawn of May 6, is the sixpence of our time.