EU would welcome Scotland in from 'untrustworthy' UK, report finds

In a paper on EU views of the UK and the future relationship between the two, the Edinburgh-based Scottish Centre on European Relations (SCER) concludes the UK's reputation has been "badly damaged" by Brexit.

And it found there is a "broad openness to Scotland having a normal accession path to the EU" as an independent nation – as long as that follows a "legally and constitutionally sound" referendum carried out in agreement between London and Edinburgh.

While there are said to be "concerns" around the UK potentially becoming unstable through the break-up of the Union, there is also "broad acceptance that Northern Ireland would be part of the EU in the case of Irish reunification".

And there is "much less openness" to the UK re-joining the EU even after a decade, SCER found.

This, it is suggested, could take a generation to achieve. Sources told SCER a decade would be "too soon" and the loss of trust over the Internal Market Bill, which contains clauses which renege on the 2019 Withdrawal Agreement, is so "profound" that many now question whether the UK can be trusted when it signs future deals.

The Tory government's handling of the Brexit process has caused "surprise and dismay" in the bloc, it is said, with some now believing that "the UK does not know what it wants, only what it does not want", with much of the confusion seen to be driven by internal divisions within the Conservative party.

Meanwhile, Boris Johnson's "global Britain" concept is said to have left European leaders "bemused".

The paper, written by Dr Kirsty Hughes, states: "Most EU member states and institutions clearly expect to stay neutral in the face of either a border poll in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, or any future Scottish independence referendum."

It goes on: "A future accession to the EU of an independent Scotland is seen as considerably more straightforward than the current accession paths of the western Balkans candidate countries, not least as Scotland was in the EU, as part of the UK, for 47 years."

The work has been carried out in partnership with the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, a German think-tank. Almost 20 key EU actors and observers in Brussels and 11 member states gave in-depth, off-the-record interviews.

Hughes, SCER director, said: “This new in-depth policy paper presents a rather negative set of EU views on the UK’s image, reputation and influence.

"The UK is seen since the 2016 Brexit vote, to have become unreliable, unpredictable, and untrustworthy and to have lost its previous substantial influence in Europe. Many are both appalled and concerned.”

She went on: “Even so, EU observers hope the UK may, eventually, return to its former pragmatic, stable, democratic state. Despite Brexit frustrations and fatigue, the EU would like to build a stronger, closer relationship in the coming years.

"The UK is still a significant neighbour for the EU though lacking its former considerable influence. Whether fractious or cooperative, the UK and EU will have to have a future relationship.”

On constitutional issues, Hughes said: “There are varying amounts of attention paid to UK fragmentation – the UK is not the EU’s top priority by any means.

"EU views are multi-dimensional and fairly pragmatic. On the one hand, further instability, that a break-up of the UK might presage, would not mostly be welcomed. On the other hand, in any future border poll or second Scottish independence referendum, EU member states would be expected to be neutral – with the exception of Ireland in the case of a border poll.

"There’s an acceptance that a yes to Irish reunification would mean Northern Ireland automatically rejoining the EU, and a broad acceptance, despite concerns in Spain, that a legally and constitutionally sound independence process in Scotland would open up a normal EU accession process for Scotland.”