David Pratt: When European autocrats are praising the UK, we have to wonder why

Yes, I know that does sound a bit off-beam, but it’s perhaps no surprise that Orban would say such a thing right now when he and his Polish counterpart Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, just like Boris Johnson, find themselves at loggerheads with the “big bad” EU.

Actually when you stop and think about it, Britain, Hungary and Poland have quite a lot in common at the moment given that all three seem happy enough to play fast and loose in flouting the rules-based international order.

If it’s not London with the Internal Market Bill then it’s Budapest and Warsaw threatening to block the EU’s new €1.1 trillion EU budget and accompanying €75 billion coronavirus stimulus fund because they object to making the funds conditional on respect for the rule of law.

All of which means that if compromises are not found – and they haven’t at time of writing – then the EU could soon be looking at a double “no deal” with Britain, Hungary and Poland.

All I can say then is fair play to German chancellor Angela Merkel, who one sensed yesterday seemed to have had enough of the shenanigans over Brexit and called it as she saw it.

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Britain and the EU must figure out a way to minimise the risk of unfair competition between their markets, insisted Merkel, otherwise the EU is prepared to accept a No-Deal Brexit.

I say good on Merkel, because I don’t know about you, but I’m sick to the back teeth of Johnson and his cohorts continually shouting foul over Brexit while trying to stack the game in their favour and riding roughshod over previous agreements.

Put quite simply, international rules-based treaties, agreements and commitments matter and the EU is only right to stick to its guns as it did recently over Britain’s Internal Market Bill, or now again with Hungary and Poland’s failures to uphold the rule of law that underpins the EU’s fundamental principals.

That Brussels has censured both Budapest and Warsaw for letting slip the judicial and political norms that underscore democracies is only right. The stakes here could not be higher. As Heather Grabbe, director of the Open Society European Policy Institute, rightly summed it up the other day: “It’s a fight for the soul of the EU.”

I mean just what do people expect the EU to do in these circumstances? Is it meant to simply stand back while two of its member governments relentlessly pursue policies aimed at undermining the independence of their judiciaries, entrench their power and views while employing laws aimed at blocking refugees and eroding press freedoms? This, after all, stands firmly at odds with what being an EU member means.

I recognise that not all of what Brussels says has to be liked and God knows there has never been any shortage of those critical of the EU as an institution, packed as they see it with an overbearing liberal elite.

But the inescapable fact is that in signing up to its shared values there are democratic responsibilities that come with such membership. Criticism from within is fine and a necessary part of the EU’s political well-being, but flying in the face of its values and trying to scupper its mechanisms while taking the benefits it offers is not on.

In the case of Hungary and Poland what really sticks in the craw is that those leaders doing all the complaining have cynically built their authoritarian turns on economic success flowing from EU money and market integration.

FRANKLY, in many respects, I can’t help feeling that up until now the EU has arguably been too tolerant of Budapest and Warsaw, just as it has been of London.

Most within the EU would not, of course, welcome a double “no deal” with Hungary, Poland and Britain. Likewise on the face of it a “no deal” is not in the interests of citizens in either three countries. But the EU has to stand firm and take sides and that was what lay at the heart of Merkel’s comments yesterday.

There’s no doubt the EU finds itself in a tricky position with Hungary and Poland. Back off and it only gives succour to the likes of Orban and Morawiecki who would unquestionably continue to turn the screw. On the other hand, should both members be treated too harshly it could open up further divisions within a union already shaken by Brexit.

The EU can ill afford delays to the funds held up as a result of the showdown with Hungary and Poland. But equally it cannot turn a blind eye to the disrespect for the rule of law evident in both countries of late.

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With all eyes here in the UK on Brexit it’s easy to overlook the fact that this budget stand-off has quickly morphed into the other most important crisis for the EU. As the summit of EU leaders gets under way today the talks will be all about deals, who wins and who loses.

With indications emerging that Hungary and Poland might be on track for a compromise there is at least some leeway for progress on that front. But the prospect of a double “no deal” is not an impossibility.

As The Financial Times warned a few days ago, such a scenario in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic would get the EU off to the worst possible start to 2021, “but the consequences of two bad deals would last for decades”.

That long-term threat is sure to focus minds in Brussels and one senses that, just maybe, the time has come for the EU to stand firm and call Britain, Hungary and Poland’s bluff.