BORIS Johnson has warned there is a “strong possibility” that the UK will fail to broker a trade deal with the EU as he urged the public to prepare for a No-Deal Brexit.
The Prime Minister said the “deal on the table is really not at the moment right”, saying it would leave the UK vulnerable to sanctions or tariffs if it did not follow the bloc’s new laws.
He said the current proposals would keep the nation “kind of locked in the EU’s orbit”, but insisted negotiators would “go the extra mile” to get a treaty in time for December 31.
But Johnson said he told his Cabinet last night to “get on and make those preparations” for a departure without a deal in place, or in an “Australian relationship” as he puts it.
Australia trades with the EU on World Trade Organisation rules – without an agreed trade deal with the bloc.
“I do think we need to be very, very clear, there is now a strong possibility – a strong possibility – that we will have a solution that is much more like an Australian relationship with the EU than a Canadian relationship with the EU,” he said in an interview.
That doesn’t mean it’s a bad thing, there are plenty of ways that we can turn that to the advantage of both sides in the conversation.
“But yes, now is the time for the public and businesses to get ready for January 1, because believe me there’s going to be change either way.”
The Prime Minister’s warning came after his dinner with European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen in Brussels on Wednesday failed to produce a breakthrough.
As the negotiators resumed talks, von der Leyen set out no-deal plans for emergency legal agreements to keep planes flying to the UK and lorries crossing Europe.
The two leaders agreed that a decision on the future of the negotiations will be taken by the end of the weekend.
Von der Leyen said at a summit of EU leaders yesterday that negotiations are “difficult”.
In his first interview since the dinner, Johnson said the UK will do “everything we possibly can” to get a deal when asked if it would be a failure of politics not to strike one.
The Office for Budget Responsibility financial watchdog has suggested that a no-deal outcome could wipe 2% off gross domestic product – a measure of the size of the economy – in 2021, which experts have indicated could be around £45 billion.
READ MORE: EU tactics in Brexit talks hint at an open door for an independent Scotland
Earlier Nicola Sturgeon warned she is “deeply and increasingly concerned” about a No-Deal Brexit – and cannot give assurances the NHS won’t face disruption in the weeks ahead as it continues to fight the Covid-19 pandemic.
“I can’t stand here and give an absolute assurance that there will be no impact on our economy, on society and even on the health service if there is a No-Deal Brexit at the end of this year,” she told Holyrood in response to a question from the Scottish Greens co-leader Patrick Harvie at First Minister’s Questions.
She told MSPs the Scottish Government was “doing everything in its powers to mitigate” against the impact of a No-Deal.
She added: “For example in relation to medical contingency planning we have been putting in place contingency plans that involve a national stockpile in intensive care and end of life medicines and we are continuing to build that stockpile.”
She went on to say that the UK was also doing work to ensure a continuing supply of the Covid-19 vaccine from January 1.
And she warned: “We are doing everything we can but nobody should be under illusions as to how deeply damaging the end of the transition is going to be – whatever the circumstances but how particularly it’s going to be if there is no deal agreed.”
Harvie warned of a “perfect storm” of Brexit, the pandemic and the extra winter pressures on the NHS as he asked Sturgeon to respond to the situation.
“Brexit is coming at a time of year when our NHS would normally be under the biggest strain anyway, but with added Covid pressures this January it faces a perfect storm,” said Harvie.
“Scotland’s health boards have warned that Brexit could disrupt their services, just at the time when we need them most.
“NHS Tayside has said that a no-deal Brexit could ‘lead to an inability to deliver safe and effective care’. Other boards warn of disruption to medicines supply, workforce shortages, and vulnerable patients abroad being forced to travel home.”
Responding, the First Minister said: “I am deeply and increasingly concerned at the lack of clarity about the arrangements that will apply by the end of the Brexit transition period in just a matter of weeks’ time.” Modelling of a hard Brexit estimates GDP would be 6.1% lower by 2030 compared with EU membership – the equivalent of £1600 per person in Scotland.
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