REMEMBER when Brexit was a new word? People weren’t sure the neologism would catch on – too ungainly, not serious enough.

The first use was apparently in 2012 when it was coined by Peter Wilding, founder of the British Influence think tank.

Eight years later and now lining up at that cliff edge, we can’t go a day without hearing it.

In that interim period, a lot has been said about trade opportunities, business risks, immigration deficits, taking back control and “oven-ready deals”. There’s been so much talk, in fact, that many of us have gotten sick of it. But given the seriousness of the change for jobs, education, travel, research, security, culture and more, it’s not a subject we can get away from.

So today, as we await what could be the final word on whether the UK’s exit from the European Union comes with a deal or without, we try to cut through the chat and crunch the numbers.

How does Brexit add up for all of us?

One of the easiest aspects to quantify is no doubt trade – though, try telling that to the UK negotiating team as they attempt to agree common ground with their EU counterpart.

According to the official export statistics published earlier this year, Scotland’s total exports rose by £2.4 billion in 2018 to £85bn. Of that, £16.1bn went to the 27-member bloc.

That figure is a 4.5% year-on-year rise – larger than the increase for any other market, domestic or international.

The USA continued to be Scotland’s top international export destination country during that year, with an estimated £5.5 billion of trade going that way.

But the remainder of Scotland’s top-five international export markets were France, the Netherlands, Germany and Belgium – all members of the EU. Together, these five markets accounted for 45% of our overseas sales, or £15.1bn.

Or take the word of the Fraser of Allander Institute – it says we export more to the 27-member bloc than to North America, the Middle East, Asia, Africa and Australasia put together.

The food and drink sector, one of the country’s biggest success stories, sold about £2bn worth of goods into the EU last year.

Predictions suggest Brexit is likely to be a big-money business, but not in the way you’d hope. The seafood industry alone estimates that export health certificates and associated customs and transportation documents will cost it anything between £7m and £15m a year.

According to experts at Warwick University, the Scottish economy has already lost more than £3.94bn to Brexit, or £736 per head of population. That varies wildly from region to region, but they think Aberdeen is worst-hit at a whopping £9000 per person due to the hit taken by its oil and gas sector.

Fears about the economy are very much linked to those about immigration – the availability of skilled and willing workers is a serious worry for the health, tech, tourism, food and hospitality sectors.

There are 234,000 EU citizens living in Scotland and net in-migration from the bloc has been a major driver of our population growth in recent years. In fact, all of our projected population growth over the next decade is expected to come from migration in the face of a major decrease in the working age population.

More than a third of our local areas are likely to see their headcount fall by 2039. As the resident population ages, there’s a need for working age people to fill crucial roles, staff services and, importantly, pay taxes.

THE TIMELINE:

June 2016: Votes from England carry the Leave campaign to victory in the EU referendum. Wales also votes to leave, while Scotland and Northern Ireland back Remain. Tough luck for Scots and Northern Irish people though, it’s out for the lot of us.

Article 50 is triggered and the two-year countdown to constitutional change begins.

March 2019: The UK leaves the EU – oh no, wait, it doesn’t. Article 50 is extended and a later date is agreed, following a vote in the House of Commons.

It’s pushed back again as Theresa May fails to get the support of her MPs and we end up with January 2020.

December 2019: With Boris Johnson now in charge, he’s exceedingly positive about his ability to “get Brexit done”, and makes that his pitch at the snap general election he wins this month.

January 2020: The EU Withdrawal Act receives Royal Assent and the transition period officially begins on the 31st of the month – giving us exactly one year to complete the process.

2351: The number of times Brexit has been mentioned across both houses since the beginning of the transition period. 1364 of these happened in the Commons.

Scotland has been used in conjunction with Brexit 307 times in that house, with devolution used in conjunction with Brexit 125 times.

“Take back control” has been uttered 184 times over the year in the Houses of Parliament, according to Hansard.

THE BATTLE BUS:

£350 million – according to the Vote Leave battle bus, that’s how much the UK will be able to save for the NHS every day by leaving the bloc.

When Boris Johnson repeated that in 2017, the chair of the UK Statistics Agency, Sir David Norgrove, rebuked him for “a clear misuse of official statistics”.

“This confuses gross and net contributions,” he wrote. “It also assumes that payments currently made to the UK by the EU, including for example for the support of agriculture and scientific research, will not be paid by the UK Government when we leave.”

The agency estimated the true figure to be closer to £136m per week.

After the referendum, the Vote Leave boss Dominic Cummings – he loves a good road trip – said his side would have lost without that claim.

In 2018, 42% of people who’d heard the claim still thought it was true, according to research by King’s College London