The end of the Union is nigh – killed by Johnson and Covid

The arrival of Covid-19 and the pandemic which turned the world upside down could have brought that momentum to a shuddering halt.

But as the year draws to a close, looking back is less about the referendum that never happened than the question of whether 2020 will go down in history as the year which finally broke the Union.

The SNP had secured a big win in the General Election of 2019. The party recorded its second-ever highest win of 49 seats, an increase of 13 from the 2017 election. The manifesto stated that the party intended to hold a second referendum in 2020; a formal request for the powers to hold it, however, had been rejected by Boris Johnson. With the reality of the UK leaving the EU beginning to dawn, support for independence was on the up.

The chaos of Brexit had dominated the closing months of 2019 and the European withdrawal agreement was finally passed by Parliament in January. On the 31st of the month, after 1317 days, three prime ministers, two missed exit dates and many votes in Parliament the UK finally left the European Union and entered a transition period of a year – which was supposed to provide ample time to negotiate a trade deal.

The contrast between London and Edinburgh was highlighted on so-called Brexit day. While there was a celebratory air in England, hundreds of people gathered outside the Scottish Parliament to mourn leaving the EU.

In a speech First Minister Nicola Sturgeon noted: “At 11 o’clock tonight the UK that Scotland voted to be part of in 2014 ceases to exist.”

A YouGov survey showed Yes in the lead for the first time since early 2015 – by 51% to 49% – a pattern that was to be repeated throughout the year. Brexit was seen as a key driver in this –“Remainers are increasingly moving towards Yes,” YouGov noted.

Meanwhile at the end of the January, the World Health Organisation declared a global emergency over coronavirus, while the UK’s first two patients tested positive for the virus after two Chinese nationals from the same family staying at a hotel in York fell ill.

Life continued as normal, for a while at least. The debate over when – and how –the second independence referendum would take place continued in February. SNP MP Joanna Cherry called for the Lord Advocate to test whether the Scottish Government has the power to hold another vote.

There was a major scandal over Derek Mackay, who resigned as finance secretary after it was revealed he had bombarded a 16-year-old with hundreds of online messages.

But Covid-19 was rapidly spreading around the world and the full horror of the virus soon emerged. Ten towns in Lombardy were locked down after Italy saw a major surge in cases. The first death in the UK was recorded on March 2, and in Scotland on March 13. There were devastating scenes in Spain and Italy as hospitals became overwhelmed.

In the UK, dealing with the crisis began with a largely “four-nations” approach – a joint coronavirus action plan was published on March 3 and guidance on social distancing was also agreed between Westminster and the devolved administrations. The decision to impose a full lockdown on March 23 was made on a co-ordinated basis.

However as the pandemic developed, it illustrated how the powers of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland could be used to take a very different approach from Westminster.

The UK Government was also criticised for sometimes failing to consult the devolved nations on key decisions. During an “address to the nation” on May 10, Boris Johnson announced an easing of restrictions and a shift in messaging from “stay at home” to “stay alert” – failing to make clear this only applied to England.

It led to a furious response from Sturgeon, who also revealed she had not been told about the change before it was briefed to the media. She said Scotland would be sticking with the old guidance to prevent progress being squandered and people “dying unnecessarily”.

The pandemic raised the profile of the leaders of the devolved nations like never before. The Scottish Government’s response has included daily briefings on the coronavirus situation in Scotland, usually personally fronted by the First Minister. In contrast, daily Downing Street press conferences stopped on June 23, with briefings subsequently given on an “ad hoc” basis.

How the public judged this is revealed in the approval ratings of the respective governments and their leaders. An Ipsos-MORI poll in May found 82% of Scots thought Sturgeon had handled the pandemic well, while 30% said the same of Johnson. More than three-quarters – 78% – thought the Scottish Government had handled it well, compared with 34% for the UK Government.

By November, a similar poll found that while approval had fallen, the huge gap remained – 74% of Scots believed Sturgeon has handled the pandemic well – while 19% said the same for Johnson. It also found 72% thought the Scottish Government had handled the virus crisis well – compared with just 25% of those who said the same of the UK Government.

In July, Sturgeon was ranked as the fifth most eloquent world leader, while praise also came from the unlikely source of Piers Morgan, who described her as “really impressive”.

While approval for the First Minister has been on the up, Johnson has widely been perceived as helping drive support for independence.

Last month pollster Professor Sir John Curtice said: “Boris Johnson is the person who delivered Brexit and Boris Johnson is the person who is presiding over dealing with the coronavirus pandemic in a manner that has got the thumbs down north of the Border.

“So the truth is that Boris Johnson has played an absolutely central role so far in stimulating support for independence in Scotland.”

Leading historian Professor Sir Tom Devine said the Prime Minister’s biggest impact had been as the “best recruiting sergeant ever” for independence.

This is borne out by the unprecedented number of polls this year which have put the Yes vote ahead – standing at 17 as of mid-December. No poll since March has shown a majority for No and support for independence hit a historic high of 58% in one survey. In her address to the online SNP conference last month, Sturgeon said she had never been so certain that Scotland will become an independent nation.

“Who do we want to be in the driving seat of shaping Scotland’s future?” she asked.

“The Scottish Government has not got everything right, far from it. But I doubt there are many people in Scotland who would have wanted Westminster to be more in charge of our pandemic response.”

It’s not just those in the Yes camp who are noting the surge in support for independence.

In October, it emerged the UK Government was drawing up plans for a dedicated “Union unit” to battle independence, headed by Michael Gove.

The expectation is the SNP will win big at next May’s Holyrood election – with the most recent poll predicting a majority with 73 MSPs, up 12 from the current number.

The party, is of course, not without its challenges after 13 years in power and issues such as the Holyrood inquiry into the Scottish Government’s handling of complaints against Alex Salmond still ongoing. Johnson will not be Prime Minister forever.

But for many, the response of Westminster during the major crises of this year – including ignoring calls from the Scottish Government to continue the furlough scheme and extend the Brexit deadline – has exposed just how much the UK is far from a nation of equals.

With the consequences of Brexit still to be seen and the fallout from the pandemic expected to continue for months, the key drivers of support for independence this year are not going away any time soon.

The coming months will also bring more battles over the internal market bill – the Brexit legislation which is being imposed by the UK Government despite the devolved nations refusing to give consent over fears it is a “power grab”.

The Welsh Government has written to UK Ministers threatening legal action, while Scotland’s Constitution Secretary Michael Russell has warned the bill is “utterly unacceptable” and has not ruled out taking steps in Scotland as well.

It is a year which will be remembered for Covid-19 and Brexit – and could turn out to be a crunch moment in the constitutional history of the United Kingdom.