THE clause in the Brexit deal which states the UK Government will be consulted over future EU members reveals its “nervousness” over Scottish independence, according to an expert on Europe.
An explicit clause in the agreement struck with the EU states there will be a discussion with the British Government over future enlargements.
James Ker-Lindsay, visiting professor at the London School of Economics and Political Science, said one reading of it is was as a “very general benign” statement.
But he said it was likely to have been written in so the UK could have a say on an independent Scotland joining the EU.
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“The stand-out from the [Brexit] agreement which was really interesting was an explicit clause that said for any future enlargements there will be consultation with the British Government,” he said.
“It could be because any new country joining the EU is suddenly going to be in a position to be able to shape European decision-making, and the UK may wish to then be in a position to say these are the particular concerns we might have.
“But of course a lot of the immediate reaction was this is London a bit nervous about the possibility of an independent Scotland – and wanting to be in a position to be able to put its side of the story over.
“You can have a benign reading of it – but I think we know where they are coming from.”
However Ker-Lindsay, whose research focuses on European Union enlargement and secession and recognition in international politics, said the EU had always held a “very clear position” that third countries cannot have any veto over who can join the EU.
He said he believed Scotland would have a fast accession process to the EU – but cautioned the process of gaining independence would have to be seen as legitimate.
“I absolutely supportive of the idea of a new referendum, but I am also very keen to point out that any Scottish Government has got to be absolutely careful that it doesn’t get itself into a situation that Catalonia found itself in,” he said.
“If it effectively it boxes itself into a position where it has no alternative as it sees it but to declare independence, I think that would be absolutely disastrous.
“If it follows a legal constitutional procedure I am certainly not one of those who says Spain will veto it whatever happens – of course it won’t.
“Spain has accepted many independent countries – what it objects to is unilateral declarations of independence, partly because of obviously what happened in Catalonia.”
He added: “If London simply refuses to give permission, we have to be quite clear that is essentially what the international community will be looking for is permission from London.
“I know a lot of people in Scotland feel very unhappy about this but we have to accept that is the way the international system operates.”
Ker-Lindsay will discuss the issues and challenges for an independent Scotland in the EU at an online event being held by the European Movement in Scotland on January 12.
Dr Kirsty Hughes (above), founder and director of the Scottish Centre on European Relations, who is also speaking at the event, said the Brexit deal clarified much of what the future relationship with the UK of an independent Scotland in the EU would look like.
But while it means there wouldn’t be tariffs and quotas in trade between Scotland and England and Wales, she pointed out there were other challenges remaining, such as the issue of the border.
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“If you are going to try and answer the Unionist case that 60% of Scottish trade is with the rest of the UK, you have got to look at the benefits of having an open border to the EU,” she said.
“You have got to look at the dynamic over time – do you attract more foreign direct investment? Do you benefit from having free movement of people back and what sort of structure of the Scottish economy do you want after 10 years of independence?”
She added: “It looks like it is a trickier one for the SNP than the Tories.
“But if the Tories are busy saying there isn’t damage from the Dover/Calais border at the same time as they are trying to say in the Scottish elections that the border to Scotland is bad – rhetorically there is quite a lot there for the SNP and others to work with as well.”
Hughes also said that despite Brexit, the European question has “not gone away”.
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