FLOODING in parts of Scotland could increase by up to 34% by the year 2080, a new study suggests.
Researchers from the Water Resilient Cities project at Heriot-Watt University in Edinburgh looked at flooding activity deemed “one in two-year” and “one in 30-year” events for their projections.
This covers the likelihood of a flood event occurring – for example, a one in two-year return period run-off or flood event has a one-in-two chance of being equalled or exceeded in any given year.
Parts of Scotland face a 34% increase in flooding in the next 50 years, according to the study, but at the other end of the UK, in south-east England, there is just an 18% increase expected.
Dr Annie Visser-Quinn, a data scientist at Heriot-Watt, said: “The north and east of Scotland is facing a 34% increase in the magnitude of flood events, which is significant."
Last year’s Storm Dennis was considered a “one in 30-year” event, but the scientists are unable to say whether the incidence of this will increase in years to come.
Dr Visser-Quinn added: “We couldn’t get the different models to agree on those more unusual, extreme events, so there is still uncertainty there.”
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