ANOTHER week, another opinion poll showing a majority for independence. That’s 20 in a row now. This time it was a poll from Panelbase commissioned by the Sunday Times and published at the weekend. Despite reports that the poll featured a non-standard question on independence, asking respondents whether they wanted independence or to remain in the UK, a formulation which has always tended to boost the No responses – and additionally not polling the strongly pro-independence 16-18 cohort – the poll still produced a 52% majority for Yes. It should also be pointed out that Panelbase polls have typically returned lower support for Yes than polls from other companies. The fact that support for independence remains in the lead irrespective of the differing methodologies of polling companies, and has maintained this lead in 20 different polls carried out over the course of more than a year, means that they are reflecting a real change in Scottish public opinion, one which is sustained and increasingly settled.
It is safe to say that Scotland is now a pro-independence nation in a way that it was not in 2014 nor indeed at any other point in its recent history. This is a shift in Scottish public opinion of historic proportions, and one which will be hugely significant for the future of this country. As we know the BBC famously refuses to comment on a single poll, but the corporation has also been notably silent on this sustained change in the Scottish public mood, a change which will have a huge effect on whether this so-called United Kingdom continues in its present form.
The Conservative Government is equally reluctant to comment in public, other than to reiterate its opposition to another independence referendum. However other Conservative voices such as the former Scottish Tory spin doctor Andy Maciver and the former Scottish Conservative chairman Peter Duncan, have warned that this is not a sustainable strategy as it will only serve to boost support for independence in the longer term and undermine any attempts from opponents of independence to argue that Scotland’s voice is represented and heard at a UK level.
The Sunday Times reports that Johnson’s Conservative Government is aware that it will not be able to prevent Scottish independence simply by refusing to accept the democratic will of the people of Scotland. The paper tells us that the British Government’s Union Policy Implementation Committee has drawn up a five-point plan to thwart Scottish independence. Firstly the Scottish Conservatives intend to fight the Scottish elections on the basis of opposing another referendum and will not make any concessions on devolution in advance.
READ MORE: Stunning new poll is 20th in a row to put majority for independence ahead
Secondly, the British Government plans to launch a campaign to persuade Scotland of the benefits of the Union. If this is anything like the Festival of Brexit that the British Government is currently planning then presumably the Tories will be persuading us of the merits of standing on a big pile of rotting fish while singing Rule Britannia and waving blue passports amidst a confetti shower of customs declarations – and allowing us to watch as spitfires airdrop Universal Credit application forms to everyone who’s lost their job. Scotland has had an overwhelmingly anti-independence media which makes the supposed case for the Union day in, day out and which has done so for decades. Yet here we are with majority support for independence, this new pro-Union campaign smacks of desperation and is unlikely to make any real difference. It won’t change Brexit. It won’t show that Westminster is taking Scotland’s wishes into account.
Thirdly, the Conservatives intend to continue to oppose another referendum – democracy be damned – in the hope that the SNP and the wider independence movement will consume itself through infighting over opposing tactics. No doubt the Conservatives are being encouraged in this by the behaviour of certain sections of the independence movement.
This is most certainly not to say that we should not continue to discuss and debate different tactics, that is healthy and productive. However there are some who have all but given up on making the case for independence and who concentrate all their time and energy on attacking the SNP and others in the movement with whom they disagree.
When we fall into that trap we are doing the Conservatives’ job for them. It is imperative that we do not take public support for independence for granted. We must not cease making the case for independence and formulating arguments for independence which will appeal to undecided voters and soft-Nos. We must not lose sight of the fact that even though there are different views on how to get to independence, we are all on the same side.
Fourthly, should the SNP as expected end up as the majority in Holyrood following May’s election, the Conservatives will consider further devolution as part of UK-wide constitutional reform. In this they will be joined in a tag team with Labour and we will hear a lot of talk about a federalism for which there is no appetite in England. The time for federalism and further devolution was after the 2014 referendum. Now it’s too little, too late and will be seen as a transparently cynical attempt to kick the issue into the long grass, likely to fool no-one.
READ MORE: Boris Johnson has a new five-step plan to stop Scottish independence
Finally, should all the above fail, the British Government hopes that it can seize control of the referendum, dictating the timing, the question and the franchise. It will be shades of 1979 all over again and must be fiercely resisted by the Scottish Government. If a Scottish independence referendum is to be legitimate and meaningful, it must be built in Scotland, determined by Scotland and controlled by Scotland. However this is a tacit acknowledgement that Johnson and his party cannot keep saying no forever.
One way or another Westminster’s Scottish question, or more accurately Scotland’s Westminster question, will come to a head this year. Westminster will not make this easy for us, and will seek to foment divisions and strife within the independence movement, but if we hold our nerve and keep our focus, by this time next year Scotland’s independence will be a certainty.
Why are you making commenting on The National only available to subscribers?
We know there are thousands of National readers who want to debate, argue and go back and forth in the comments section of our stories. We’ve got the most informed readers in Scotland, asking each other the big questions about the future of our country.
Unfortunately, though, these important debates are being spoiled by a vocal minority of trolls who aren’t really interested in the issues, try to derail the conversations, register under fake names, and post vile abuse.
So that’s why we’ve decided to make the ability to comment only available to our paying subscribers. That way, all the trolls who post abuse on our website will have to pay if they want to join the debate – and risk a permanent ban from the account that they subscribe with.
The conversation will go back to what it should be about – people who care passionately about the issues, but disagree constructively on what we should do about them. Let’s get that debate started!
Callum Baird, Editor of The National
Comments: Our rules
We want our comments to be a lively and valuable part of our community - a place where readers can debate and engage with the most important local issues. The ability to comment on our stories is a privilege, not a right, however, and that privilege may be withdrawn if it is abused or misused.
Please report any comments that break our rules.
Read the rules hereLast Updated:
Report this comment Cancel