I WAS very interested to read David Pratt’s National Extra column yesterday, “Myanmar coup: China will be watching events unfold with special interest”.
It is so far one of the few pieces of analysis in Scottish media of the significant role that China has to play in the complex ongoing internal conflicts in Myanmar, of which this coup is just one part. As David Pratt’s column notes, the two nations have close economic and political ties, and tend to support one another on the international stage.
Given China’s economic interests in Myanmar, it is unsurprising that its response so far has prioritised stability. China enjoyed strong relationships with both the military junta and Aung San Suu Kyi’s democratic government. The reality – as argued by south-east Asian democracy network FORSEA – is that the military never gave up its power in any real sense. The 2008 constitution for democracy reserved a quarter of parliamentary seats for the military and legalised coups such as the one we are seeing now. China has benefited from this constitutional arrangement and is unlikely to challenge it now.
READ MORE: David Pratt: Why China will be watching the Myanmar coup with special interest
But ongoing violence in Myanmar’s north-eastern states, on the other hand, is a real source of concern for China. The 1500km border between China and Myanmar spans Kachin and Shan states, where conflict between the military and rebel groups has displaced over 100,000 people. Tens of thousands of refugees have already crossed into China, which has had to construct refugee camps in neighbouring Yunnan province. Hundreds of women and girls – at least – are being trafficked into China every year from Kachin and Shan states where they are subjected to sexual violence, forced pregnancy and abuse as "brides" for Chinese men.
China ostensibly has a policy of non-intervention in what it considers to be internal affairs of other countries. However, if the situation on its border worsens, China may be forced to act.
READ MORE: Military seizes control of Myanmar after detaining Aung San Suu Kyi
Since 2016, the Rohingya genocide has quite rightly grabbed international headlines. But the full extent of Myanmar’s internal conflicts has had less attention. That may change if the fears of international observers about an escalation in violence across the country are realised.
Whatever happens in the coming days, one thing is very clear: the international community – including China and Myanmar's South East Asian neighbours – must act urgently to protect Myanmar’s vulnerable ethnic and religious minorities from further violence and human rights abuses.
Catriona MacDonald
Edinburgh
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