JUNTS (Together), the party of the exiled Catalan president Carles Puigdemont, is on course to win the election to the Catalan Parliament.
This is the result of the first of two Feedback surveys for The National to be released today, 24 hours ahead of the election. The survey has been updated daily since Tuesday via telephone tracking of 1000 respondents.
According to the data, Junts, currently the largest pro-independence party, consolidates its first place in the race with 33-34 seats and 20.73% of the vote.
READ MORE: Pro-independence Junts per Catalunya leading Catalan election race in poll
The Socialist Party (PSC), which aspires to lead the pro-unionist bloc, would follow with 28-29 seats and 20.02% of the vote. ERC, the other partner in the outgoing pro-independence government, headed by the imprisoned vice-president Oriol Junqueras, would get 18.76% of the vote and is fighting with the PSC for second place in terms of seats, with 28-29 according to the survey estimate.
Ciudadanos (Citizens), the pro-Spanish party that won in 2017 with 36 seats, is predicted to collapse, splitting its votes to the benefit of socialists and the far-right party Vox - it would get 12-13 seats and 9.34% of the vote. En Comú Podem, the alternative left, improves its expectations. The survey gives it 8.47% of the vote and 11 seats.
On the other hand, CUP, the anti-capitalist, pro-independence party, has in recent days moderated the expected rise since the 2017 vote, and should win 7-8 deputies and 5.56% of the vote. The far-right Vox is expected to enter parliament with 5-6 seats and 5.37% of the vote, but it has also strength in recent days. PP, conservative, closes the list with 4.65% of the vote and 5 deputies.
For the first time, the poll today predicts the possible entry into parliament of PDeCAT, a moderate pro-independence party, heir to the former Convergència, which improves its performance to 2.77% of the vote and 0-2 seats.
The re-run of the pro-independence majority in the new House remains the most likely government coalition, although its margin is narrowing. Junts, ERC, CUP and PDeCAT would now get between 68 and 73 seats. The absolute majority is 68 in the 135-seat Parliament.
The expected turnout went up in relation to yesterday's poll and reached 60.81%, still almost 20 points below the historic 79.09% achieved in the December 21, 2017 elections. The number of undecided voters fell slightly, and would be now 29.7%. Uncertainty about the final result, in any case, is still at a maximum.
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Junts, primera força. PSC i ERC es disputen la segona plaça a 24 hores de les eleccions catalanes
Junts, el partit del president català a l’exili, Carles Puigdemont, seria el guanyador de les eleccions al Parlament de Catalunya. Aquest és resultat del primer sondeig de Feedback per a The National d’aquest dissabte, a 24 hores de la celebració dels comicis. L’enquesta, s’ha anat actualitzant cada dia des de dimarts en forma de tracking telefònic.
Segons aquestes dades, Junts, independentista es consolida al primer lloc de la cursa amb 33-34 escons i un 20,73% del vot. El Partit Socialista (PSC), que aspira a liderar el bloc unionista, seria segon amb 28-29 escons i un 20,02% dels vots. ERC, el segon soci independentista del govern sortint i partit del vicepresident empresonat, Oriol Junqueras, obtindria un 18,76% dels vots i pugna amb els socialistes per la segona plaça en nombre d’escons, amb 28-29.
Ciutadans, la formació espanyolista que va guanyar al 2017 amb 36 escons, s’ensorraria ara, a benefici de socialistes i l’extrema dreta: obtindria 12-13 diputats i un 9,34% del vot. En Comú Podem, d’esquerra alternativa, confirma a l’enquesta la millora d’expectatives, amb un 8,47% dels vots i 11 escons.
La CUP, esquerra anticapitalista i independentista, en canvi, modera el seu creixement, amb 7-8 diputats i un 5,56% del vot. L’extrema dreta, Vox, entraria al Parlament amb 5-6 escons i un 5,37% del vot, però també conté el seu ascens. El PP, conservador, continua a la cua amb un 4,65% del vot i 5 diputats.
El sondeig reflecteix avui per primera vegada la possible entrada al Parlament del PDeCAT, partit independendentista moderat, hereu de l’antiga Convergència, que millora el percentatge de vot fins a un 2,77% del vot i 0-2 escons.
La reedició de la majoria independentista a la nova Cambra que ve recollint l’enquesta es manté, si bé el marge s’estreny. Junts, ERC, CUP i PDeCAT obtindrien ara entre 68 i 73 escons. La majoria absoluta és de 68 en un Parlament de 135 llocs.
La participació prevista millora en relació al sondeig de divendres i arriba al 60,81%, gairebé 20 punts per sota de l’històric 79,09% assolit a les eleccions del 21-D del 2017. Es redueix lleugerament el nombre d’indecisos, que ara serien el 29,7%. La incertesa sobre el resultat definitiu, en tot cas, és encara màxima.
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