THE eagerly awaited Ipsos MORI poll on Scottish independence has been published, revealing some intriguing findings.
Commissioned by STV, the survey was the 22nd in a row to record majority support for a Yes vote.
It found that 52% of voters would back independence if a referendum was held tomorrow, with 48% opposed – once undecided voters are excluded.
Scotland’s two main pro-independence parties, the SNP and the Greens, are also on track on make gains in May’s Holyrood election, according to the poll.
But what else did we learn?
Independence to the fore
Unionist parties have consistently urged pro-independence politicians to focus on what matters to voters, citing health and education instead.
But according to the Ipsos MORI research, the constitutional question is the most important issue to voters.
Respondents (1031 adults from February 15-21) were asked what issues they considered to be ”very important” when deciding which party to support.
READ MORE: Independence supported by majority of Scots, 22nd consecutive poll shows
They see Scottish independence as the most important issue helping them decide which party to vote for (44%), followed by education (32%), healthcare/NHS (25%), the pandemic (20%) and the economy (18%).
Brexit and climate change (both 12%) were the only other issues mentioned by at least one in 10 respondents.
Indyref2
A majority of Scots (56%) believe the UK Government should agree to a second independence referendum in the next five years if the SNP win a majority in May.
That’s down from 64% in October, when Ipsos MORI last asked voters.
More than a third (34%) believe the Scottish Government should take Boris Johnson’s administration to court if it refuses to grant a Section 30 order, should the SNP secure a landslide victory.
However, 42% say the Holyrood government should accept the refusal.
A further 18% think a referendum should be held without Downing Street’s consent if indyref2 is blocked.
What does it tell us about the election?
The poll found 52% of respondents plan to give their first vote to the SNP in the constituency vote, while 23% say they will vote for the Conservatives, 15% for Labour, 5% for LibDems and 3% for Greens.
In the regional list, 47% say they will vote for the SNP, compared with 22% for the Conservatives and 14% for Labour. The Greens received the backing of 8% of voters, ahead of the LibDems on 6%.
READ MORE: SNP support stays strong in latest Scottish Parliament voting intentions poll
But what would such results mean in reality?
Using the findings, Ballot Box Scotland projected the results of the election.
Projecting ComRes Ipsos MORI 15 - 21 Feb into seats (changes vs 20 - 26 Nov /vs 2016):
— Ballot Box Scotland (@BallotBoxScot) February 25, 2021
SNP ~ 72 (-1 / +9)
Conservative ~ 26 (-1 / -5)
Labour ~ 17 (-2 / -7)
Green ~ 9 (+4 / +3)
Lib Dem ~ 5 (nc / nc) pic.twitter.com/Oiwwqrf79x
It found the SNP would win 72 seats, nine more than in 2016.
The Tories would secure 26 (-5), while Labour would lose seven seats, leaving them with just 17.
The Greens would gain three to put them on nine, while the LibDems would remain on 5.
Anonymous Ross
Nicola Sturgeon is the clear frontrunner when it comes to party leaders, despite a drop in her approval rating.
Some 64% of voters say they’re satisfied with her performance, down from 72% in October, with 32% dissatisfied. With 4% undecided, that gives her an approval rating of +32.
The leader of Scotland’s distant second party, Douglas Ross, has a satisfaction rating of -12. Alarmingly for Scottish Tories, a third of respondents said they “don’t know” when asked about his performance. That’s still better than in October, when a whopping 40% said they didn’t have an opinion.
Willie Rennie’s approval rating is +6, up from -1. A considerable 36% of voters didn’t have an opinion on him either.
Greens co-leader Patrick Harvie has a rating of +12.
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