SCOTLAND’S democratic and public institutions are under full-frontal attack by Unionists politicians and commentators. Majority support for Scottish independence continues and desperate times clearly call for desperate measures by its opponents.
After months of total disinterest about the Scottish Parliament inquiry into the handling of harassment investigations, the metropolitan media ramped up their coverage ahead of evidence sessions involving the former and current First Ministers. Some commentators can barely conceal their glee at the prospects of calamity for Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP and the independence cause.
Having been unable to dent the growing support for independence now it’s open season on the Scottish Government, Scottish Parliament, Scottish legal system and Scotland’s general ability to manage its own affairs.
Andrew Neil, Fraser Nelson and other Unionist commentators have used the opportunity to wade in and apply glaring double standards to their critique of Scotland vs Westminster. Even former Labour Downing Street head of communications Alastair Campbell was moved to point out the rank hypocrisy.
He tweeted: “I hold no candle for the SNP and the Salmond-Sturgeon story is clearly important and newsworthy. But my God, compare and contrast the right-wing media and BBC News coverage with the comparative lack thereof of @Suella Braverman re Cummings, Priti Patel breach min code, the entire govt prepared to break law re N Ireland/Brexit and Matt Hancock found to have broken law but said it was ok cos he was in a hurry.
“I know Andrew Neil has a dog in this fight but if there is a ‘Banana Republic’ right now it stems from London.”
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This week, the sixth iteration of Downing Street’s failed Union Unit was binned. Following the resignation of its most recent head who was in office for only two weeks, and the sacking of his predecessor, the Unit is being superseded by a committee chaired by Prime Minister Boris Johnson. The newly created “Cabinet Union Strategy Committee” will also include Chancellor Rishi Sunak, Michael Gove and the secretaries of state for Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales. They will be joined by the undetected and newly enabled former Brexit negotiator David Frost.
For the first time in Whitehall, there is a growing acknowledgement that an independence referendum is coming and the committee will steer the No campaign.
Rachel Sylvester wrote in The Times: “There’s a new realism in Number 10 about Scottish independence. Rather than simply say no to the SNP, Johnson and his team are beginning to plan for a referendum campaign.”
Remembering that the Brexit referendum was delivered by the Tories after receiving only 37% of the vote in the 2015 General Election, it will be difficult to block a second Scottish referendum if the elections return a Holyrood majority with a manifesto commitment to hold one.
Opinion polls are not the same thing as election results, as we know. However, we were reminded this week in an Ipsos MORI poll for STV news that, not only do 52% support Scottish independence but that the SNP are projected to win the May election with the current level of support at 53% for the constituency vote.
This would return 72 SNP MSPs out of 129 members of the Scottish Parliament, a gain of nine seats and an absolute majority in the Parliament. List Yes parties are polling less than 3% and have no chance of election, but could reduce the ability of the SNP to win more list seats. It is more important than ever for the SNP to hammer home the “Both votes SNP” message.
More generally, the level of satisfaction in Scottish party leaders shows Nicola Sturgeon miles ahead of the also-rans with a net satisfaction rating of +48 compared to -17 for the Tories’ Douglas Ross, -1 for the Lib Dems’ Willie Rennie and a creditable +12 for the Greens Patrick Harvie.
When Nicola Sturgeon is compared to UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson her +48 measures up against his -58, a gap of 106 points! Among party supporters the SNP leader has a remarkable 92% satisfaction rating.
We are now only 10 weeks away from the Scottish Parliament election on May 6 and the SNP are well placed, notwithstanding the efforts of some to undermine the First Minister.
For all of us who want to see the return of a pro-independence SNP majority at Holyrood we need to maintain our focus and effort to maximise the vote.
Already a major push is on by the SNP to promote voter registration and the take-up of postal votes. If you haven’t already done so, please make sure you register to vote and arrange for a postal vote. Please promote the #BothvotesSNP message and campaign for your local candidate.
By keeping our eyes on the prize we can secure a historic victory and secure an independence referendum.
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Callum Baird, Editor of The National
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