Wee Ginger Dug: This is what will happen if Yes fails to win May's election

The good news is that the effect of the damaging dispute between the First Minister and her predecessor does not seem to have been catastrophic. The independence movement and the SNP remain in a strong position. It is not too late to turn this around. We face British nationalist adversaries who have no compelling new arguments of their own to make. However, the weekend’s polls should be taken as a warning about what happens when we take our eye off the ball and devote our efforts to fighting among ourselves rather than keeping the focus on independence.

Unfortunately, the forces of British nationalism have been assisted in their efforts because some ostensibly pro-independence blogs have of late completely abandoned any attempts to persuade soft No voters and undecideds of the benefits of independence or to speak about the dangers to Scotland of remaining under Westminster rule.

They have instead decided to focus exclusively on persuading committed independence supporters of the supposed need to burn the SNP down to the ground, in order to embark upon a long-term project to rebuild a new independence movement more in tune with their own views and preferences – without apparently concerning themselves with the political consequences of what is likely to happen to Scotland should pro-independence parties fail to secure a majority in May.

When we stop trying to make arguments that will appeal to soft No voters and undecideds, we are lost. I am not telling anyone to “wheesht for indy” as some of the angrier marginal voices on the sidelines of the independence movement have claimed. In a democracy it is important that power is held to account and that we should speak out with alternative thoughts and ideas. However, when as independence supporters we cease doing the vital work of actually making the case for independence and focus exclusively on attacking factions within the movement with whom we disagree, the result is that we end up doing our real opponents’ job for them.

And our real opponents are the Conservatives and their allies in Anas Sarwar’s uber-Unionist faction of the Labour Party in Scotland.

The fact remains that the Conservatives have nothing constructive to offer Scotland. All that is on the table from the Johnson Government is the continuing weakening and hollowing out of the devolution settlement and more power grabs at Holyrood’s expense.

These power grabs will be minimised and trivialised by an anti-independence Scottish media and a BBC Scotland which care far more about frustrating demands for independence than they do about holding Westminster to account for its promises and commitments to the people of Scotland.

The Tories have seen how the coronavirus epidemic has allowed the Holyrood and Cardiff governments to asserted the limited political autonomy afforded to Scotland and Wales by the devolution settlement and they do not like it one bit. Should the SNP fail to do well in May, we can expect to see the Conservatives redouble their efforts to bring the Scottish Parliament to heel and to further undermine Holyrood and to grab powers back for Westminster.

Should the unthinkable happen and the SNP go into reverse at May’s election and – may all the gods help us – the British nationalist parties deprive the pro-independence ones of a majority, the brakes will be off. The Conservatives will see this as vindication and will embark upon an all-out assault on the devolution settlement, safe in the knowledge that they will be able to do as they please without having to bother themselves with the need to formulate a plausible case for the continuation of Westminster rule in an independence referendum.

They will neuter the Scottish Parliament and close any loopholes which allow Scotland to decide its own future without the express consent of whoever happens to occupy 10 Downing Street. The Westminster Tories have already pretty much given up on their Scottish counterparts. They know they don’t need Scottish votes to win power in the UK as a whole, so they are not going to care too much if their actions weaken the prospects of Douglas Ross and his pals.

It is vital that in the remaining weeks before this vital Holyrood election, the Scottish Government and the SNP, as well as the wider Yes movement, put independence and the need for Scotland to be able to determine its own destiny front and foremost in the campaign.

The SNP’s constitutional affairs spokesperson, Michael Russell, denied he wrote what was claimed to be the introduction to the SNP manifesto which last week found its way on to certain blogs which have been ferocious in their attacks on the SNP leadership. However, the document did have the merit of placing the independence question at the very centre of the campaign and not relegating it to a paragraph buried deep and hedged about with caveats.

The campaign ahead needs to be centred on independence, not on Nicola Sturgeon’s leadership of the SNP. This campaign must focus on ensuring Scotland has the right to decide its own future and on building a positive vision of the advantages that open up to Scotland as an independent nation able to forge its own relationships with Europe and the rest of the world.

We must be left in no doubt that the SNP understand that the next Scottish Government must have the pursuit of independence as its over-riding priority and that the leadership cannot simply sit back and hope that support for independence will continue to grow in the absence of a co-ordinated and focussed campaign which has the full weight of the SNP leadership and the Scottish Government behind it.

If we mess this opportunity up, it could be many years before we get another chance, if we ever do. This can either be the political generation which achieves independence, or the generation that screws it up for many years to come because of its own divisions and infighting.