FOR the first time in decades, a country is to unilaterally declare that it has the intention of significantly increasing its nuclear weapons arsenal. Unfortunately for us, that country is the UK.
Boris Johnson has, in a massive exercise in post-Brexit jingoism, announced his plan to increase the UK’s stock of nuclear warheads from 180 to 260 warheads.
The decision is utterly illogical. There has been no change in the levels of threat that the UK faces that justifies this increase. Nor has the UK increased its capacity to deliver the warheads it has, so quite what difference this increase makes is hard to tell.
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What is more, and thankfully, the UK has never had to fire a nuclear weapon. But then, that’s also because since 1945 all its military engagements have been offensive and against deliberately chosen weaker opponents, which fact does, however, undermine the supposed defence justification for this increase.
In terms of policy the decision looks to be disastrous. Just like the planned deployment of the new British aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth to the far-east, this will look to the rest of the world like the UK still pretending that it remains a global power when the reality is that it is glaringly obviously not. No one, barring a few Tories, is going to be the slightest bit taken in by that posturing.
In the meantime, £8bn of government money will be wasted, and a legacy of nuclear waste will have to be addressed.
And all this will be happening whilst the international aid budget, which delivers more for British power, prestige and influence in the world than defence spending ever can, is to be cut by £4bn in one of the biggest indications of wrong priorities that any government could wish to promote.
There is, however, a very particular Scottish angle to all this. The evidence that people in Scotland are not as keen on either defence spending or nuclear weaponry has been around for some time. It is one of the many areas where social attitudes in Scotland differ from those in the rest of the UK. But it may do something else as well. It may indicate that Scotland is none too happy to be the dumping ground for all these nuclear warheads, in bases not very far from the centre of Glasgow. This makes Scotland a target. Why should it be keen on that? The sense of being dumped on is hard to avoid.
The nuclear dump on Scotland does also create an issue for the future. There will be much hubris in government press releases on this issue that will, no doubt, sing the praises of the Scottish contribution to the UK defence effort.
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It is now the daily task of some poor civil servants to knock out this nonsense. The truth is, though, that Scotland is increasingly indicating that it wants no part in this. So what then of an additional 80 warheads sitting on Scottish soil that it will no longer want, and for which it will not have sovereign responsibility after independence, which I am now sure will happen?
Much as I do not want these new weapons of mass destruction, and much as I find it incomprehensible that anyone else might do so, I cannot help but note that Johnson is being mightily foolish when increasing the impact of the single biggest ace that the Scottish Government will have in negotiations after independence, which is to demand that the UK remove its nuclear arsenal, or else.
"Would Scotland play that card," is the question some people ask? Why wouldn’t it, is the response I give. Of course it will do so. And rightly so.
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There is no reasonable expectation based upon current experience that Westminster will play fair after a vote for independence. Scotland will need all the bargaining chips that it can get. The increase in the nuclear arsenal announced today will, it is to be hoped, have no real impact on the world, excepting the fact that it makes it much easier for Scotland to demand the settlement it wants from Westminster when the going gets tough in the future.
These weapons are in that case guided missiles, targeted firmly on London and its refusal to treat Scotland appropriately. But that just makes clear one last point, which is that Johnson really does not know what he is doing. And when the subject under discussion is nuclear weapons, that is really worrying.
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