POLITICIANS and polling experts have expressed concerns about a new poll on Scottish independence.
The Survation study, commissioned by Scotland in Union (SiU), did not use the standard question to quiz Scots about the constitution, instead asking them if they wanted to “remain” or “leave” the UK. It found 57% of respondents would vote to “remain”, while 43% backed “leave” once undecided voters were removed.
Professor John Curtice, president of the British Polling Council, disputed claims from the Unionist group that the research “confirms” a downward trend in support for independence.
Scottish Justice Secretary Humza Yousaf went further, saying the results were “rigged”. SNP depute leader Keith Brown added: “Voters will see right through this desperate attempt to rig the question in a deliberate bid to confuse independence with Brexit.”
They will throw more conspiracies & rigged polls at us between now & polling day - we will stay focussed on Covid recovery & ask people who they trust to guide us through it, Nicola or Douglas Ross?
— Humza Yousaf (@HumzaYousaf) March 17, 2021
In whose hands do they trust our Country's future - Scotland's or Westminster?
Instead of being told to provide a Yes/No response to the question of independence, respondents to the Survation poll were asked, if there was a referendum tomorrow, how they would vote on based on the following question: “Should Scotland remain part of the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?'”
It is the fifth time since November 2018 that such a poll has been commissioned, with the previous one published in September 2020.
SiU chief executive Pamela Nash claimed the latest result “shows that a majority of people in Scotland want to remain part of the UK”.
She added: “This confirms the recent trend in polls, with the successful UK vaccination programme and UK-wide support for jobs and businesses reminding us that we are stronger together.”
READ MORE: Why no-one should take Scotland in Union’s independence polls seriously
However, Curtice pointed out that despite a slight dip in support for independence in recent polls, the SiU survey recorded no significant change since its last poll in September, when support for “remain” was 56%. Two weeks previously, a Panelbase poll for Business for Scotland recorded Yes support at 55%.
He told The National: “Actually, the intriguing thing about this poll is the increase in support for ‘remain’ is only one point. That of course [SiU] did not point out in their press release.
“It basically doesn't show any change. This question has got that answer pretty consistently on the four or five occasions it has now been asked.”
He added: “Ironically the poll is the least convincing evidence of the past four or five weeks that support for independence has gone down.”
The University of Strathclyde professor also pointed to concerns about the poll’s claim that independence is no longer a major issue for Scots.
Asked to choose up to three of the most important issues currently facing Scotland, 53% of respondents selected “Covid-19 recovery”, 48% backed “NHS and social care” and 46% opted for “economy and jobs”. Just 8% chose “constitutional affairs and independence”.
Nash commented: “The SNP should focus on what really matters to people – Covid recovery, NHS and social care, and jobs. Instead it has chosen to use parliamentary time to debate separation, which shows how out of touch the nationalists are.”
Yet Curtice cast doubt on whether the results could be considered proof that the constitutional question is on the back burner.
“It's now very clear that the answer you get to how important independence/the constitutional question is in people's minds also depends on how you ask the question."
He continued: “If you ask people how important independence is on a list of items, which is what [SiU] do, you will get relatively few people saying it's the most important issue because if you are against independence, you will by definition not choose it as an issue.”
He pointed to a recent Ipsos MORI study for STV which used a different method – asking respondents about “devolution/independence” in relation to voting intention. It concluded independence is seen as the most important issue in helping people decide which party to vote for (44%), followed by education (32%), healthcare/ NHS (25%) and coronavirus (20%).
Curtice explained: “When Ipsos MORI asked people what's going to matter to you most in how you vote, then actually devolution/independence came top. And it came top for Scottish Tory as well as SNP voters.”
The polling expert also gave his thoughts on why the phrasing of the questions appears to impact the results so considerably.
He said: “There are various possible explanations, but it's often thought that people have a certain degree of status quo bias. So if you ask people whether they should remain in something or leave something, as opposed to should somewhere become independent or not, you pick up a status quo bias whereby people find remain more attractive.
“That would be the principal argument, the other is that not everybody who is in favour of independence necessarily wishes to leave what we might call the United Kingdom, insofar as the United Kingdom includes the union of the crowns, the Common Travel Area with no border etc. One suspects that there are probably some people [who support independence] who feel that, yes, I want to remain part of the United Kingdom, or what Alex Salmond called the ‘Social Union’.
“So if you ask them the leave/remain question, you get a slightly different answer than you if you ask the Yes/No one.”
SNP politicians expressed their misgivings about the results of the Survation research. Responding on Twitter, Yousaf wrote: “They will throw more conspiracies & rigged polls at us between now & polling day – we will stay focused on Covid recovery & ask people who they trust to guide us through it, Nicola or Douglas Ross?
“In whose hands do they trust our Country's future – Scotland's or Westminster?”
In an exclusive article for The National, pollster Mark McGeoghegan also cast doubt on the results.
He wrote: “SiU’s independence polls are tinged by problematic question wording. It’s not just that they don’t reflect the findings of other polling, but that they do not reliably track attitudes to independence in the first place. For that reason, nobody serious should take them too seriously.”
Yet the poll was welcomed by Scottish Tory politicians. MSP Dean Lockhart posted: "Positive news but we have to keep pushing to deprive the SNP of the majority and the referendum they crave."
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