SUPPORT for Scottish independence was the majority position in two polls conducted across February and March, despite reporting to the contrary.
A report in the Sunday Times said that Yes had lost a twelve-point lead after Nicola Sturgeon gave evidence to the Holyrood Harassment Complaints Committee on March 3.
This report was based on polling conducted by Hanbury Strategy, the firm handed £1 million of taxpayer money in the summer of 2020 to research the future of the Union.
The first poll, which asked 3946 voters between February 12 and March 1, found 56% of Scots supported their country becoming independent, with Don’t Knows excluded.
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The second poll, conducted between March 5 and 9 and involving 1500 voters, found 53% of Scots would vote Yes, with Don’t Knows excluded.
However, this second poll was originally misreported as returning a 50/50 split between the Yes and No camps. As such, the 12-point drop headlined in the Sunday Times was actually just half that.
Polling analyst and blogger James Kelly said the drop of 3%, compared to the originally reported drop of 6%, was the difference between “sign of real changes on the ground [and] random sampling variation”.
The corrected figures were officially released today by the think tank Onward, which said they represented “the most comprehensive survey of attitudes towards the Union since 2014”.
Now Released. Corrected figures for @HanburyStrategy #indyref2 poll reported in @SundayTimesScot. 12.2-1.3; Yes 56, No 44; 5-9.3: Yes 53 No 47. So drop in Yes between 2 polls was 3, not 6. https://t.co/UbzXeGg0f9
— What Scotland Thinks (@WhatScotsThink) March 23, 2021
A further 1500 individuals from the rest of the UK were surveyed between February 12 and March 1, with respondents from England, Wales, and Northern Ireland taking part in the survey.
Onward say the figures “reveal that support for Scottish independence is higher than it ever was prior to the 2014 referendum, yet is also volatile and far from inevitable”.
It found Yes retains a 30+ point lead among 18-45 year olds, a 16 point lead among working class voters, and net support in five of Scotland’s eight regions.
The poll compares this to support for separation elsewhere in the United Kingdom: 34% of Welsh voters agree that Wales should be independent and 31% of Northern Irish voters agree that Northern Ireland should be part of a United Ireland.
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It also found that Scottish voters do not want a referendum on Scotland’s future this year. 49% of all Scottish voters think that “coronavirus should be completely eliminated in Scotland” before a referendum is held, and more voters think a referendum should be held after 2027 or never (38%) than support a referendum this year or next (35%).
Onward says that support for independence may harden considerably if the UK Government decides to “just say no”. This is based on the polling data which found 35% of Scottish voters, and 58% of Yes voters, say that if the SNP wins a majority and the UK Government refuses a referendum outright they would be more likely to vote Yes.
However, if the SNP wins a majority and holds a referendum without the agreement of the UK Government, roughly the same number (33%) and 53% of No voters, say they would be less likely to vote Yes, versus 24% and 11% who say it would increase their likelihood to vote Yes.
The think tank said this suggests that the SNP may be overreaching by putting a second referendum on the ballot paper and committing to an immediate and unilateral referendum.
READ MORE: James Kelly: Are polls showing a genuine Yes bounceback or just random variation?
However, it also found that the only issues Scots think would be better handled by remaining in the UK are foreign affairs and defence, reforming the UK constitution, and sourcing vaccine supplies.
SNP depute leader Keith Brown said: "When the current Covid crisis is over, the people of Scotland – not Boris Johnson – have the right to decide how we recover from the pandemic.
"The SNP is fully-focused on tackling Covid-19, but the powers that come with independence are essential if we are to create the kind of country we know is possible after the pandemic.”
Full data tables will be available at www.hanburystrategy.com/data-strategy on March 25.
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