SIX weeks out from the Scottish Parliament elections, one issue dominates all others – independence.
That’s been made clear by the SNP and the Greens, who are determined to bring about a fresh constitutional ballot if voters elect a Yes majority and when Covid clears, and by their pro-Union rivals, whose messaging to voters centres around opposition to that move.
Repeated polling has also shown the Conservatives, Labour and the LibDems trailing the SNP after its 14 years in government.
Increasingly conversation revolves around not whether or not the SNP will be the largest party once all counts have finished, but whether it will achieve a majority and whether this might happen with or without the support of other parties.
On Friday that debate intensified as Alex Salmond, former First Minister and ex-SNP leader, launched his new political vehicle, the Alba Party.
Journalists from across the UK media establishment joined bloggers for a 75-minute event that saw Salmond unveil an initial roster of four candidates, including two who had until then been on the SNP’s list. Salmond said it aims to “build a supermajority for independence”.
READ MORE: Viewers across Scotland react to launch of Alex Salmond's Alba Party
The move brought the number of Yes parties set to fight their first election to five – and then quickly reduced it to four again when Action For Independence (AFI) announced it would no longer stand any of its 42 candidates.
Their names – including ex-Scottish Socialist Party and Solidarity leader Tommy Sheridan and AFI founder Dave Thompson, an ex-SNP MSP – had been revealed in the morning, but by 9pm the party said it had agreed to withdraw them all.
Martin Keatings, who challenged the Article 30 rule in a high profile court case, had been an AFI candidate but revealed his entry to Alba late on Saturday.
“AFI is gratified that its concept of ‘max the Yes’ and the building of a supermajority of independence supporting MSPs has been taken up by such a highly credible party with such influential leadership,” AFI said in a statement.
“The Alba Party is to all intents and purposes ‘AFI 2’ and we note that the ideas, slogans and max the Yes concept it employs were all spawned by AFI.
“AFI’s aim has always been to unite the Yes family on the regional lists and we are confident that the Alba Party, with the help of AFI’s members, will succeed in doing that.”
READ MORE: Action for Independence to stand down candidates in Holyrood election after Alba launch
The move may provide some relief to other newly-formed organisations and intensify the risk to others of ceding support.
But success is not guaranteed for any party until all votes are counted.
And as we await the publication of detailed manifestos – and, in some cases, complete candidate lists – members of the public are now weighing up where to put their cross for votes one and two on polling day.
Today the Sunday National takes a detailed look at what we know so far about the growing roster of Yes parties and what they stand for.
It comes one day before the Electoral Commission’s deadline for the registration of new parties, and three days before the deadline for registering changes to party names, emblems and descriptions.
Completed nomination papers with candidate details must be submitted to the same body 23 days before the poll, at the latest.
READ MORE: Independence for Scotland Party reveals candidates for Scottish Parliament
Three of the new parties so far – Scotia Future, the Independence for Scotland Party (ISP) and the Alba Party – have confirmed they are fielding former politicians as candidates.
ISP, which was announced late last year, counts former SNP councillor Julie McAnulty amongst its 14 hopefuls, with Roddy McCuish, a serving SNP-turned-ISP councillor in Argyll and Bute also seeking a Holyrood seat on the list.
The party is led by Colette Walker, a disability rights activist who founded ISP after leaving the SNP in opposition to its approach to the reform of the Gender Recognition Act.
It is set to launch its manifesto after a members’ conference at the beginning of next month and supports Scottish membership of Efta or the European Economic Area.
Nato membership, Walker says “is a matter for the Scottish people after independence”. However, she is clear that “we are against Trident”.
On independence, ISP has “been calling for a plebiscite”. “If we get a supermajority,” Walker says, “we will have a snap election, which [will be] internationally recognised.
“We have an extensive strategy for dealing with Covid,” she goes on, “but part of it will be setting up a Scottish Social Security Agency and introducing UBI [universal basic income] to act as a net.”
Unlike ISP, Scotia Future has its eyes on constituencies. Ex-South Scotland MSP Chic Brodie founded it with Andy Doig, a Renfrewshire councillor who latterly served as an independent after exiting the SNP.
Brodie, who was also a LibDem councillor while living in England in the 1990s, hopes to win election in Ayr, while Doig seeks to unseat the SNP’s Tom Arthur in Renfrewshire South, which includes his council ward.
Scotia Future stands for the “indivisible sovereignty of the Scottish people” outwith both the UK and EU.
The party favours a Switzerland-style deal and membership of the European Free Trade Association (Efta) and says independence should rest on the sovereignty of the Scottish people, not Westminster.
Doig says it will “subscribe to a Statement of Independence” if a pro-indy majority is returned.
READ MORE: Give Holyrood employment powers, Scotia Future says in votes drive
“Continued refusal by Westminster to recognise the independence mandate within a specified timescale will lead to an appeal to the UN under UN treaties to which the UK is a signatory,” he says.
The second option is to “negotiate with Westminster”.
Anti-Trident and anti-Nato membership, the party would seek a tripartite neutrality pact with Sweden and Ireland and wants full powers over the economy to “re-industrialise Scotland and make sure we come out of the Covid crisis stronger than we went in”.
Restore Scotland, which emerged 50 days from the poll, says it is “the only political party in Scotland currently committed to true independence with that message at the forefront of its policy platform”.
That means staying outwith the EU, Efta and the EEA. “As a small and agile independent nation,” it says, “Scotland should pursue international and co-operative trade arrangements.”
READ MORE: Holyrood election: New pro-independence party Restore Scotland launches
Anti-nuke and likely to oppose Nato membership, pending full discussion at its first conference, it believes the SNP is putting independence “under threat” but opposes a plebiscite, fearing a Catalonia-style situation and instead seeking a “constructive and amicable dissolution of the Union with the United Kingdom”.
It also plans social security investment and seeks to exit lockdown “as soon as possible to enable the people of Scotland to recover their lives and livelihoods”.
The Alba Party, which includes not only Salmond but also two of the SNP’s 2021 candidates in Inverclyde, councillor Chris McEleny and fellow list hopeful Eva Comrie, will set out its policy prospectus on April 6.
The date coincides with the 701st anniversary of the Declaration of Arbroath.
However, on Friday Salmond highlighted interest in women’s sex-based rights and insisted he aims to work with, not against, the SNP.
It advocates a vote for the SNP in the constituency race and the “social democratic” Alba Party on the list.
READ MORE: Holyrood 2021: Second SNP MP defects to Alex Salmond's Alba Party
“The weight of these two votes combined,” the party says, “will tip the balance in Scotland’s favour and guarantee a supermajority for independence in the Scottish Parliament this year.”
It has seven descriptions currently before the Electoral Commission for approval, including “Get Independence Done”, “Make Independence Happen” and “First vote Party, Second vote Country”.
Scotland’s Independence Referendum Party, which is fielding one candidate so far in leader Mark Whittet, has indicated it wants to work with Alba.
“Scotland’s independence is far too important to just be left to the SNP alone,” says Whittet, who aims to hold individual referenda on defence, Europe and Covid recovery after independence is achieved.
Edinburgh councillor Ashley Graczyk, who is standing in the Lothians as an independent, also advocates for independence after leaving the Conservative Party.
She’s standing on a platform of protecting the rights of EU citizens after Brexit and action on “unworkable” rent rules in the region.
The Sunday National also contacted the pro-Yes Scottish Socialist Party for this article, but did not receive a response.
Strongly pro-Europe, the Scottish Greens are avowedly pro-indyref2 anti-Trident and say their manifesto will “support a referendum on our shared future”.
Yesterday co-convenor Lorna Slater said the party has “detailed investment plans that will see at least £7.5bn going to public transport, warm homes, restoring our natural environment, and the sector I work in, renewable energy, creating over 100,000 jobs in the process”.
“We need to see an investment-led recovery,” she said. “A return to austerity would be even more devastating than last time round. The real question is what will we invest in?
“The Tories have been clear. They want to spend untold amounts of money on expanding their nuclear arsenal, which we in Scotland are forced to host, while at the same time cutting the budget for most public services next year by 8%. Delivering yet more grinding and cruel austerity for ordinary people.
“The SNP have also failed to break from the status quo, continuing to plough billions into road building, and pinning their hopes on fossil fuel hydrogen and carbon capture and storage.”
READ MORE: YSI convener says young people ‘will take Yes vote over the line’
As for the SNP, it is loudly pro-Europe, roundly against Trident and firmly in favour of Nato membership with “the speedy and responsible withdrawal of weapons of mass destruction from Scottish waters as a matter of priority”.
“When the current Covid crisis is over the people of Scotland – not Boris Johnson – have the right to decide how we recover from the pandemic,” it says.
“If a pro-independence majority is returned to Holyrood, delivering a mandate for a second independence referendum, the SNP will look to have a post-pandemic referendum in the first half of the next Holyrood term.”
It’s pledged to deliver 100,000 affordable homes in “the biggest home building and investment programme since devolution and a down-payment on Scotland’s economic recovery”.
“Scotland faces a choice of two futures,” the party says, “the long-term damage of Tory cuts and Brexit under the broken Westminster system, or the opportunity to secure our place in Europe and a strong, fair and green recovery as an independent country, in a post-pandemic referendum.”
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