THE SNP could be on for a historic win in next month’s Holyrood elections, a UK-wide poll has suggested.
The poll, published today by Kantar UK, found that a massive 7% of voters across the whole of the UK would vote SNP in a General Election.
Estimates from the Office for National Statistics suggest that around 8.2% of the UK’s population lives in Scotland, meaning a 7% result would be an absolute landslide and is likely outwith the realms of possibility.
However, this represents a 3% increase on Kantar’s February poll, which found 4% support for the SNP. The firm’s January poll also found 4% support for the SNP across the UK.
Pollster Mark McGeoghegan said this 3% increase represented a “statistically significant” change in position for Nicola Sturgeon’s party, adding that the margin of error at 7% is around 1.5 points.
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McGeoghegan said: "This is only the second time since the 2017 General Election that the SNP has polled at 7% of the total GB vote (the other being last September)."
He went on: “Low polling numbers, like the 7% registered by the SNP in Kantar's latest GB poll, are subject to high degrees of uncertainty. It's practically certain that the SNP wouldn't win 7% of the UK-wide vote.
“But the significant increase of 3%, and the fact that the SNP vote share in that UK-wide sample is so high, strongly indicates that support for the SNP in Scotland remains high, and is in fact higher than Kantar's last poll showed in late February.”
This is only the second time since the 2017 General Election that the SNP has polled at 7% of the total GB vote (the other being last September).
— Mark McGeoghegan ⬋⬋⬋ (@markmcgeoghegan) April 1, 2021
+3 is also a statistically significant increase in share of the vote since Feb 22nd (MoE at 7% is around 1.5 pts). https://t.co/2IApX5fKUO
The pollster also cautioned that comment on the precise nature of SNP support, and the impact of Alex Salmond’s Alba, would need to wait until a Scottish election poll is published.
Kantar’s UK-wide poll also found that the Conservatives would win 42% of the vote in a General Election, compared to 34% for Keir Starmer’s Labour party.
The LibDems would win 9% of the UK-wide vote, according to the survey.
It also asked about people’s attitudes to the Westminster Government’s handling of the pandemic. It found more people had a positive view (48%) of the Tories’ management of Covid than had a negative one (46%), the first time since May 2020 this has been the case.
READ MORE: Tory staffers urging voters to use postal votes hint at more possible mischief
Other headline figures from the poll include the fact that 78% of UK adults are somewhat or very satisfied with the vaccine rollout, and 57% of people would support a vaccine passport being used to restrict access to venues such as cinemas and stadiums.
Elsewhere, half of the public (49%) feel the UK Government is doing too little to help women feel safe in public places, with women more likely to say so than men (54% vs 42%). Only 22% of people said they think the Government is doing enough.
The Kantar survey interviewed 1102 adults living in Great Britain between March 25 and 29, 2021.
The data was weighted to match population totals for age, gender, 2019 General Election voting patterns, 2016 EU referendum voting patterns, education, region, and likelihood to vote in the next General Election.
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