THE latest Holyrood voting intention survey suggests the SNP could just miss out on a majority while the Greens secure 10 MSPs.
Savanta ComRes carried out the poll for The Scotsman, predicting an overall pro-independence majority with 74 MSPs.
The poll, carried out between April 2 and 7, also found low levels of support for the Alba Party. However, it did not account for differences in support between the regions.
READ MORE: Scottish election: SNP on track to win majority in latest Ipsos MORI poll
The polling firm found 3% of people surveyed would vote Alba on the list at the upcoming election. Around 4% of those who will vote SNP in the constituency ballot next month will support Alba on the list, while 6% of 2016 SNP voters will support Alex Salmond’s party.
Analysis of the poll projects that if all Alba voters reverted back to the SNP, the party would have a majority of three MSPs.
Simon Cereda, a senior consultant at Savanta ComRes, said: “The latest data from Savanta ComRes for The Scotsman shows how tight it will be for the SNP to achieve their hoped for majority in May. Votes lost to Alex Salmond’s Alba Party, even the small numbers we are picking up, may prove costly.”
The poll also showed the gap between Labour and the Tories closing in – with Douglas Ross’s party to lose six seats, returning 25 MSPs, and Scottish Labour to lose one seat, returning 23 MSPs.
While yesterday’s Ipsos MORI poll showed the LibDems could lose a seat next month, this Savana ComRes survey projects the party will gain one seat and return six MSPs.
On Scottish independence, the study found 45% would back Yes, 45% would back No, with the remainder of respondents undecided.
More than half (53%) believe a new referendum should be held in the next five years or sooner, while 38% say it should occur within two years.
READ MORE: Why Salmond’s bravado is the main challenge that Alba face
This study follows yesterday’s Ipsos MORI poll which predicted the SNP would win the majority of seats on May 6, with the Greens to return 11 MSPs too. That survey also showed support for independence at 52%.
On favourability, the Scottish Government saw an increase in popularity, up 5% after a drop between February and March to +16.
Nicola Sturgeon’s favourability was also up 3% on +20, while Anas Sarwar is also in the positive on +2.
Salmond was ranked -51, 23 points behind Boris Johnson and more than 70 points behind Sturgeon.
Greens co-leader Patrick Harvie appears to have suffered a drop and is now on -11, equal to Douglas Ross.
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