NICOLA Sturgeon has said she will push ahead with legislation to enable Holyrood to hold a second referendum on independence if there is a pro-independence majority in the Scottish Parliament after next month’s election – and if Boris Johnson continues to fail to agree a new vote.
The First Minister has said she wants people to be able to vote again on whether the country should become independent and has said she wants this to happen in the early part of the new parliament – once the country the is out of the pandemic.
Last month ministers published a draft bill setting out the question and timing for a new independence referendum after the move had been promised in the Programme for Government.
Opinion polls have put the SNP on course to win a majority on May 6 with a survey by Opinium, published yesterday, revealing the party would win 71 seats – a majority of 13 – with the pro-independence Greens netting six MSPs. The poll suggested Alex Salmond’s new Alba party would not gain a seat, though a survey last weekend suggested it could win six seats.
READ MORE: Nicola Sturgeon hits back at Alex Salmond claim she’s been slow on independence
At a briefing with members of the Scottish Parliamentary Journalists' Association (SPJA) yesterday Sturgeon was asked if she would press on with legislation to hold a Holyrood-backed referendum if the Prime Minister refused to agree. Johnson has repeatedly said he will refuse, suggesting there should be 40 years between the two referendums.
The First Minister said that would be the case, although she believed Johnson would agree to a new vote and that such discussions were taking place among Conservatives and in Whitehall.
She said: “We have set this out. We would take the legislation through Holyrood and if Boris Johnson wanted to stop that he would presumably have to try to legally challenge that in which case we would vigorously defend our position.
“But that would be an absurd position for a Prime Minister to get himself into in the face of a democratic majority. If it happens, time will tell. But I don’t think that will be the position we will be in.
“I strongly suspect, based on some of what I hear that is under discussion in the depths of the Tory party and Whitehall at the moment, is that they know an independence referendum is coming.
“And they are already moving into how they would fashion the question or would attempt to fashion the questions and the franchise and all the rest of it. I don’t think that’s the situation we will get ourselves into, but first of all I’ve got to win the mandate for it and that’s what I’m focused on right now.”
During the question and answer session the First Minister was asked about the 2023 timetable for the referendum and on whether she expected that 2026 would see the first elections to an independent Scottish Parliament.
The National asked her, with reference to her statement last week that independence was essential to recovery from the pandemic, if she was in favour of an early vote.
“My preference would be to have the referendum and offer the choice to the people of Scotland within the first half of the parliament, which is a period that runs, as we touched on earlier on, until the end of 2023,” she replied.
“If in terms of whether that can definitely happen and if so where within that time span a referendum would actually happen depends on the situation with Covid.
“I do believe independence and the decision-making that that then brings to the Scottish Parliament is important to ensuring we get the right kind of recovery.
“But right now we are still in the teeth of an acute phase of a pandemic, people are still living under very serious restrictions and as long as that continues, not least because people wouldn’t be able to campaign properly.
“We are finding the restrictions of this campaign difficult enough, so for a whole host of reasons we need to get out of the crisis of Covid and then put that choice to the people of Scotland. So my preference is within the first half of the parliament but of course the demands and realities of Covid have to be what guides that decision.”
She was also asked if she would be prepared to wait until after 2023 if the pandemic and recovery demanded it.
The First Minister replied: “If, by the middle of the parliament, we were still grappling with in a way similar to now a global pandemic then I don’t think it would be appropriate to have a referendum at that point.
“But if we are out of the crisis, then the reason I’ve set the first half of the parliament – which you’re right, is a period that lasts until the end of 2023, is because I do think as we start in earnest to recover the issue of whether decisions are taken, where power lies, is material to the kind of recovery we have.”
On whether 2026 could see the first elections to an independent Scottish Parliament, she replied: “That would be certainly, yes, the preference in terms of the timescale, but as I said before there are issues of judgment that will determine whether that is precisely the timescale we operate on.”
She said while she understood “the desire on the part of ardent independence supporters to think there’s a quick or easier way she had a “duty” to be “straight with people”.
She added: “We only get to be independent when a majority of the people of Scotland want that and vote for that in a legitimate process, that will be accepted here at home and accepted internationally.”
Former first minister and Alba Party leader Alex Salmond raised concerns about the possibility of the referendum happening after 2023 as a result of the pandemic.
He said: "Independence supporters who are already underwhelmed at the lack of progress towards independence over the last five years, despite there being a majority in the Parliament in favour of it, will be taken aback at the apparent lack of urgency towards Independence in the next Parliament.
“As Scotland recovers from Covid we will need the full powers of Independence to renew our economy and society, which is why the drive to independence should be a priority, not something to be delayed. That is exactly why we need an independence #Supermajority in the Scottish Parliament.”
But on her view that a referendum could be held before 2023 so long as the pandemic was over, Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar said: “Nicola Sturgeon’s blind spot on the constitution is on show yet again.
“The pandemic doesn’t end when the public health crisis does - our recovery should be the only priority in the next parliament.
“The only way to deliver a parliament focused on the national recovery Scotland deserves is to cast both votes for Scottish Labour.”
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