THE SNP, Greens and Alba could achieve 78 pro-independence seats in the Scottish Parliament election next month, according to the latest polling.
A survey from Panelbase, commissioned by Believe in Scotland, projected that the SNP will win 63 seats, the Greens will win 10 and Alba will win five. That would mean a pro-independence majority of 27 seats.
According to the poll the Tories would remain in second place with 26 seats, Labour would have 20 MSPs and the LibDems would maintain their five representatives.
READ MORE: Scottish independence 'inevitable' as new poll puts Yes in the lead
The seat prediction was calculated by polling expert John Curtice using the data collected by the firm.
He said on those figures the SNP would take three constituency seats from Labour – Dumbarton, East Lothian and Edinburgh Southern.
But with support for the party on the list down to 36%, it is likely that they will miss out on a majority.
Meanwhile the prediction showed Alba could take list seats in Glasgow, the West, Highlands and Islands, the North East and Lothian. The Greens would take list seats in every part of Scotland, including two in both Lothian and Glasgow.
Panelbase recorded little change across the Unionist parties. In the constituency the Tories are on 23%, up one point, and on 22% on the list, also up one point.
The pollsters recorded no change for Labour, at 20% on the constituency and 17% on the list vote. There was no change for the LibDems on the constituency vote, but they were up one single point on the regional vote. The Greens were at 4% in the constituency voting intention section, and 9% on the list, up two points and one point respectively.
Support for Alba was recorded at 6%, which marks no change from the last Panelbase poll, and All for Unity was at 2%, down two points.
Curtice (above) commented: “The poll underlines the potential tactical choice that faces nationalist voters. On the one hand, it provides some support to Alba’s claim that a list vote for them could result in the election of more pro-independence MSPs.
"On the other hand, the poll also affirms that backing Alba on the list vote could cost the SNP seats – and, in turn, the prospect of an overall majority. Supporters of independence may well have to decide which they think is more likely to bring about a second referendum – having more pro-independence MSPs or the SNP winning an overall majority.”
The Panelbase study also recorded a majority for independence at 51%, putting Yes in the lead after a dip earlier this year.
The research found a whopping 72% of 16 to 35-year-olds want to leave the Union. An even larger proportion (77%) of females within that age category back Yes.
A Believe in Scotland statement said: “The age demographics point to it simply being a matter of time before Scotland becomes independent.
“If young voters were as likely to vote as older ones Yes would win by a large margin already, so if the Yes campaign in the next independence referendum can engage young voters and motivate them to vote then a Yes result is inevitable.”
The poll was carried out among 1002 voters in Scotland from April 9-12.
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