INDEPENDENCE is “inevitable” – that’s the conclusion drawn by a major Yes organisation after it commissioned a new poll on the constitutional question.
The Believe in Scotland survey, carried out by Panelbase, found 51% of Scots back independence, while 49% are opposed once undecided respondents were excluded.
The poll also predicts a majority for pro-independence parties, with the SNP on course to win 63 seats, the Greens 10 and Alba five. A total of 78 and a majority of 27 seats.
It is the latest in a series of polls in the last few weeks to record a narrow Yes lead after a slight dip in support for independence at the start of the year. Overall, support among men and women mirrored the 51%-49% split in the new study.
Perhaps most strikingly, the research found a whopping 72% of 16 to 35-year-olds want to leave the Union. An even larger proportion (77%) of females within that age category back Yes.
A Believe in Scotland statement said: “The age demographics point to it simply being a matter of time before Scotland becomes independent.
“If young voters were as likely to vote as older ones Yes would win by a large margin already, so if the Yes campaign in the next independence referendum can engage young voters and motivate them to vote, then a Yes result is inevitable.”
Panelbase interviewed 1002 Scottish residents over the age of 16 between April 9 and 12. It found support for independence leading by 48% to 46%, with 6% defining themselves as “don’t knows”.
Nicola Sturgeon has vowed to hold a referendum if Scots elect a pro-independence majority in May’s election. Boris Johnson has so far refused to countenance the prospect of a vote under any circumstances.
According to the poll the Tories would remain in second place with 26 seats, Labour would have 20 MSPs and the LibDems would maintain their five representatives.
The seat prediction was calculated by polling expert John Curtice using the data collected by the firm. He said on those figures the SNP would take three constituency seats from Labour – Dumbarton, East Lothian and Edinburgh Southern.
READ MORE: James Kelly: Polling grows more complex – but pros outweigh the cons for Yessers
But with support for the party on the list down to 36%, it is likely that they will miss out on a majority.
Meanwhile the prediction showed Alba could take list seats in Glasgow, the West, Highlands and Islands, the North East and Lothian. The Greens would take list seats in every part of Scotland, including two in both Lothian and Glasgow.
Panelbase recorded little change across the Unionist parties. In the constituency the Tories are on 23%, up one point, and on 22% on the list, also up one point.
The pollsters recorded no change for Labour, at 20% on the constituency and 17% on the list vote. There was no change for the LibDems on the constituency vote, but they were up one single point on the regional vote. The Greens were at 4% in the constituency voting intention section, and 9% on the list, up two points and one point respectively.
Support for Alba was recorded at 6%, which marks no change from the last Panelbase poll, and All for Unity was at 2%, down two points.
Curtice said: “The poll underlines the potential tactical choice that faces nationalist voters. On the one hand, it provides some support to Alba’s claim that a list vote for them could result in the election of more pro-independence MSPs.
“On the other hand, the poll also affirms that backing Alba on the list vote could cost the SNP seats – and, in turn, the prospect of an overall majority. Supporters of independence may well have to decide which they think is more likely to bring about a second referendum – having more pro-independence MSPs or the SNP winning an overall majority.”
The poll was carried out among 1002 voters in Scotland from April 9-12.
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