WHAT’S THE STORY?

THERE are elections going on all over the UK on May 6, and Scotland’s Celtic cousins in Wales are voting to elect a new Welsh Parliament, the Senedd Cymru – the sixth time they have done so since devolution in 1999.

Like elections to the Scottish Parliament, each voter has two votes, one for their constituency and one for the regional lists. There are 40 constituency members and 20 regional members in the Senedd, meaning 31 seats are needed for an overall majority, and as with Scotland’s d’Hondt method, the additional member system of proportional representation is supposed to ensure that parties get “list” seats in the five regions to reflect their share of the second vote.

In other words, the more constituencies you win, the fewer list seats you gain.

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In 2016, for instance, when it was still called the National Assembly – the Senedd name was adopted in 2019 – Labour fell two short of a majority and had to do some horse trading with the LibDems whose one member Kirsty Williams joined in coalition with Labour so that Carwyn Jones could become First Minister and form the Welsh Government. He stood down from the role and as Welsh Labour leader in 2018, and was replaced by Mark Drakeford whose face has become familiar across the UK due to his hands-on approach to dealing with the coronavirus pandemic.

Apart from the Tories’ Andrew Davies, the main parties in Wales have all changed their leaders since 2016.

WHAT ELSE IS DIFFERENT THIS TIME?

FOR a start, this will be the first election in which 16 and 17-year-olds can vote, though opinion polls show a reluctance on the part of these new voters to even register.

The pandemic has also markedly changed things with more people registering for a postal vote. Drakeford has also done “a Sturgeon” and been praised for his leadership in tackling coronavirus.

A recent opinion poll showed that he is rated by the Welsh as doing a much better job than Boris Johnson and – whisper it – Scotland’s First Minister. Polling shows he is by far the most respected Welsh party leader with almost triple the support of Davies, and the same poll showed a reversal of fortunes for Labour – they were predicted to get just 22 seats in February, but are now tipped to gain 29 seats again.

Plaid Cymru is on course to lose two seats, according to the poll, and could be overtaken by the Tories as the second party in the Senedd, but a second poll published yesterday by YouGov stated that Labour’s support was hardening and that it was neck and neck between Plaid and the Tories for second place.

Plaid leader Adam Price, who replaced Leanne Wood in 2018, is in favour of greater co-operation between the Celtic nations and in the past has set a timeline for Welsh independence by 2030.

Ukip took seven sets in 2016, all of them on the regional lists, but six of their members have since left the party while Neil Hamilton has become interim leader of Ukip for the whole UK. He is standing on a platform of scrapping the Senedd and giving power to school and police boards at local level.

There is also a party standing called Abolish the Welsh Assembly. Indeed.

WHAT DOES THE ELECTION MEAN FOR WELSH INDEPENDENCE?

THIS is where it all gets a bit strange. While the polls show Plaid Cymru static or even in reverse, the cause of independence for Wales has never been more popular and numerous groups have been promoting an independence referendum.

A shock ITV poll early last month showed support for independence at a record high of 39% – it had been hovering around the 28-30% mark for some time – and, significantly, several Labour members and candidates say they would support a referendum on the issue.

When the poll was published, Mick Antoniw, a Labour member of the Senedd and supporter of federalism, said: “There is no doubt that more and more people in Wales want change in our relationship with Westminster. This has mainly been fuelled by a UK Tory government intent on centralising power in Downing Street and its failure to engage with the Welsh government on key policies and reforms.

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“The current relationship between the UK and Welsh governments is increasingly fractious and disconnected.

“I believe that now is the time for a Welsh ‘People’s Convention’ to engage the people of Wales in deciding what the future governance of Wales should be and our relationship with the rest of the UK. Failure to embrace real change will lead to the break up of the UK.”

If Plaid were to stage a rally and come a definite second, and if Labour can’t get a majority, the two parties could agree to form a coalition and part of that deal would surely be an examination of a possible reworking of Wales’ long relationship with England – King Edward I, Longshanks, effectively annexed Wales in the late 13th century, but it was not until the reign of King Henry VIII that Wales was incorporated into his kingdom.

At least the Welsh didn’t sell their land for a mess of pottage, unlike Scotland’s parcel of rogues ...

WHAT ISSUES WILL DECIDE THIS ELECTION?

INDEPENDENCE will definitely be a talking point but unlike Scotland, the Labour Welsh Government is not pushing for a referendum. Drakeford is Welsh Labour’s chief asset, and he has been campaigning on leading a Welsh recovery from Covid-19, including a “catch up” policy for all in education and a guaranteed place in work for everyone under the age of 25.

Plaid Cymru have pledged to hold an independence referendum and work to get more devolution. What a pity they look set to lose.