THE weather forecast for this weekend is good for the whole of Scotland, with sunny intervals and a moderate breeze. Temperatures will reach between 12-14C and there is only a small chance of rain.
These are ideal campaigning conditions. Right across the country, activists will be volunteering to help elect SNP candidates, re-elect the SNP Scottish Government, return Nicola Sturgeon as First Minister and secure an independence referendum.
In the most marginal Labour-held constituency, Toni Giugliano is seeking to overturn the tiny 109-vote majority in Dumbarton. The talented mental health campaigner is in pole position to win the seat from Jackie Baillie with the help and support of volunteers who are joining a Weekend of Action at 12.30pm today and 1.30pm tomorrow at Dumbarton East Station car park.
In the most marginal Tory-held constituency, I am seeking to overturn the wafer-thin 610-vote majority in Edinburgh Central.
I grew up in the constituency which has been vacated by Ruth Davidson and have been working hard for months to help the SNP win. This weekend I am being joined by volunteers at noon today at the Scotmid on Gorgie Road, while campaign teams are also meeting at the Tesco on Nicholson Street and Hector’s in Stockbridge. Tomorrow, volunteers are collecting leaflets and posters from the SNP Rooms at 16 North St Andrew Street from 10am and 4pm.
Across Scotland, local constituency and regional list SNP candidates are canvassing and leafleting to help secure victories which will determine Scotland’s future being in Scotland’s hands. Around one-quarter of the electorate has already received postal votes, leaving three-quarters who can be reached in the last two weeks of the campaign before polling day on May 6. No votes and no results can be taken for granted, they need to be earned and converted into crosses on ballot papers and majorities in constituencies and quotas across regions.
According to the most recent opinion surveys, the SNP are in a strong leading position, the Tories and Labour are far behind scrapping for second place, while the Alba Party is going nowhere.
READ MORE: Mhairi Black: This is how splitting the pro-independence vote can cost us seats
Looking a bit closer at the numbers, the SNP are in a position to potentially win their best-ever constituency results but may come up short on the regional list vote.
This was the difference between the 2011 election when the SNP almost matched results for both votes, and the 2016 Holyrood polls when they didn’t. And the ultimate difference between an unprecedented majority in 2011 and winning in 2016, but short of a majority.
Among the opposition parties, the Tories are having an appalling campaign led by Douglas Ross, while Labour are potentially heading for their worst-ever Holyrood result despite better ratings for their new leader Anas Sarwar. Both were exposed this week on the media by tough interviewing; Ross for being unable to explain a democratic route to independence and Sarwar for false Covid claims.
The second and third-placed political parties in Scotland are prisoners of their own mediocrity, with neither making a credible pitch for government, leadership or policy innovation. No wonder undecided voters are looking at the electable pro-independence alternatives.
For people who are still unsure how they are going to use both of their votes for maximum pro-independence effect, they should vote SNP in their constituency and also on the list to have the best chance of an SNP victory.
Leaving things to chance, or trying to game the electoral system is a fool’s errand. The most effective result to secure an independence referendum is the strongest SNP victory. That is why the next days in the run-up to polling day are crucial.
If you haven’t yet been out to support your local candidate, now is the time to volunteer. There are thousands of leaflets and supporters letters to go out, doors to be chapped, voters to be encouraged and other campaign tasks to be completed. Constructive online campaigning has its place and the SNP digital team is already running a great campaign.
But it is on the ground that the election will be won. If you have any spare time between now and polling day you should volunteer and help the SNP secure a historic victory.
If you are an SNP member, you should be receiving emails from your local campaign giving information about days of action and other activities. If you are not a member, have look at the social media account of your local candidate or message them for details.
The 2021 Scottish Parliament election will be the most important since the start of devolution.
Your country needs you now. Volunteer and support your local SNP candidate and let’s re-elect the SNP Scottish Government and Nicola Sturgeon as First Minister, and secure an independence referendum.
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