THE last Scot Goes Pop poll in January found that a slim majority of the public would prefer to be represented at the Olympic Games by a Scottish team, rather than by Team GB.

In the new poll, I asked a similar question about the Eurovision Song Contest, and this time the results were much more decisive: 60% of voters want to be represented at the Eurovision by a Scottish entry, and only 40% would prefer to continue with a UK entry.

The difference between the two polls can perhaps be explained by a perception that smaller nations are less successful at the Olympics. No such consideration applies to Eurovision, in which small countries such as Ireland and Luxembourg have just as strong a track record as large countries like the UK and France.

It should also be noted that, while there is an IOC rule that would make Scottish participation at the Olympics difficult until the country becomes independent, it would be very straightforward for Scotland to enter Eurovision this side of independence if the will is there on the part of the BBC, which is one of the event’s biggest funders.

Scotland has already competed in its own right at the Eurovision Choir competition in 2019, with the entry selected by BBC Alba. And the Welsh language broadcaster S4C has sent Welsh entries to both the choir event and the Junior Eurovision Song Contest.

It may not seem immediately apparent that a poll question about Eurovision can tell us anything about Scottish politics and independence, but in fact a preference for having Scottish representation at cultural or sporting events is a proxy for strong Scottish national identity, and that in turn is a predictor of support for self-government.

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If 40% of voters actively prefer to be represented by the UK, that suggests that their Scottish identity is not of primary importance to them and that it may be extremely hard to convince them to back independence.

Perhaps that should provide a reality check to anyone who thinks it’s possible to get more than 60% support for Yes, or even that such a big majority should be considered a prerequisite for firing the starting gun on an independence referendum.

Elsewhere in the same poll, I asked a couple of questions about the presence of UK nuclear weapons on the Clyde.

Once undecideds are stripped out, 59% of respondents think the UK should join the new international treaty banning nukes, and dismantle its own weapons.

Previous polls on Trident over the years have produced close or contradictory results, so the clarity of this finding may indicate that the coming into force of the treaty has been a game-changer for public attitudes.

Even among the rump Scottish Labour vote from the 2019 General Election, a majority support nuclear disarmament once don’t knows are removed. That suggests Jackie Baillie’s blueprint for a sort of “atomic Unionism” could easily risk losing Labour votes to the SNP or to other anti-Trident parties.

Ultimately, the purported rationale for having nuclear weapons is to keep the public safe.

But do people actually feel safer? The poll suggests that the reverse is true. Some 42% of respondents say the presence of nuclear weapons on the Clyde makes them feel less safe, due to the risk of accidents and of the area becoming a target for nuclear attacks.

Only 24% buy into the “deterrent” logic and say they feel safer. Again, the views of Labour voters are broadly in line with the public as a whole, and even 26% of people who voted No in the indyref think that the existence of Trident puts them in greater peril.