BORIS Johnson’s government is preparing to reject a request for a new Scottish independence referendum, and gearing up to enter a court battle if the SNP continue with plans to hold one, according to reports.
The SNP want to hold a referendum in the first half of a new parliamentary term, after the Covid crisis. They have indicated if the UK rejects a Section 30 order they would plan a referendum anyway and could fight Westminster in the courts.
According to The Telegraph the UK Government will deploy a “not now” argument to a Section 30 request following Thursday’s Scottish Parliament election.
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Ministers think that delay can go on for years as the definition of the Covid recovery is very broad.
As well as rejecting the Section 30 request, the Government is getting ready for a court battle, the newspaper said.
A UK source commented: “If it comes to that, if those are the cards they play, I don’t think the UK Government can sit back and do nothing.”
Scotland is expected to elect a pro-independence majority at next week’s election, with some polls indicating the SNP may also achieve a majority.
But the UK Government’s approach appears to be exactly what former chancellor George Osborne recommended in a newspaper article at the beginning of the year – to just say no.
They could argue that a Covid recovery will take “years” – therefore, it should be years before indyref2 is even a consideration.
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“We're not through the pandemic when furlough ends and the pubs are open,” a UK Government source said. “Look at some of the backlogs on cancer operations and jobs numbers and the impact on young people. There is a whole lot of stuff that is pandemic-related that doesn't go away quickly.”
Beyond saying no, it is reported that the UK Government has legal advice dating back to 2011 which could block a referendum bill being tabled in Holyrood without the UK’s permission.
Three sources said the advice, arguing it would be unlawful for Scotland to hold a binding referendum without the UK Parliament’s approval, exists. It was reportedly commissioned by former prime minister David Cameron in 2011 when the SNP secured a Holyrood majority.
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However, there is concern in Westminster that the SNP could argue a referendum would not be binding and simply advisory – it appears whether this would be within the law is not so clear.
Meanwhile UK insiders are pushing for a broader plan to tackle support for independence. One source who has been involved in discussions with Johnson said: “There is no strategy, there is no plan.”
Another added: “Sometimes … I look at where we are and just think it’s inevitable.”
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