ALEX Salmond will be returning to Holyrood alongside an outright majority of SNP MSPs, if the results of a new poll prove to be correct.
The latest survey, conducted for The Herald by BMG Research, put Nicola Sturgeon’s party on course to win 68 seats in the Scottish Parliament, three more than is needed for an outright majority.
However, the likelihood of an SNP majority remains on a knife-edge, with just a few crucial, marginal constituencies set to make all the difference.
A seat projection by polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice found that Salmond’s Alba Party could return two MSPs, taking into account regional variations in their support. However, sample sizes involved in regional predictions are very small.
It also predicted that the Scottish Greens would return nine MSPs, the party’s best ever result.
This would mean that Holyrood would have a firm pro-independence majority of 79 MSPs out of a possible 129.
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However, the BMG poll found that support for independence among the Scottish public remains on a knife-edge, with 50% backing Yes and 50% No after undecided voters are removed.
The BMG poll asked 1023 Scots of voting age between April 27 and April 30.
On the constituency vote, it found the SNP have a commanding lead over the other parties while Scottish Labour are in second.
Nicola Sturgeon’s SNP were on 49%, Labour on 21%, the Tories on 19%, and the LibDems on 9%.
On the regional vote, Labour are trailing behind Douglas Ross’s Scottish Tories, suggesting the battle for second still rages.
On the list, it found the SNP is on 37%, the Tories are on 22%, Labour is on 17%, the LibDems are on 8%, the Greens are on 9%, and Alba is on 4%.
John Curtice’s predictions say this would mean the SNP return 68 MSPs. The Tories would win 25 seats, and Labour would win 18. This would mean a loss of six seats for each party.
The LibDems were predicted to gain two seats, returning seven MSPs, while the Green return nine and Alba two.
Curtice (below) said the seats projected to go to Alba would take one seat off the Conservative estimate and one off the Greens, and so would add one to the total number of pro-independence MSPs.
Robert Struthers, head of polling at BMG, said: "There is no question that the SNP will be returned as the largest party in Holyrood next week, but their prospect of a majority remains on a knife-edge.”
He went on: “The Greens look to be on course for their strongest ever election showing, picking up 9% on the regional list.
"The strength of their showing means there is little doubt about the prospect of a pro-independence majority, even if the SNP don't make it over the line themselves.
"The success of Alex Salmond's Alba Party will also come down to very small margins.
"At 4%, it looks like it will be a struggle for Alba to win representation at Holyrood, although this may be enough at a regional level to pick up a seat or two.
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"The margin of error - a feature of all polls - means there is the possibility that Alba could achieve closer to 6%, the number required for a more widespread electoral breakthrough.”
BMG also asked those polled about their opinions of the party leaders, with a majority of Scots saying they are satisfied with the way Sturgeon is performing as First Minister.
A total of 54% of Scots said they were satisfied, compared to just 21% for Boris Johnson as Prime Minister.
Meanwhile, 28% are satisfied with the way Anas Sarwar is doing his job as Scottish Labour leader, with 16% dissatisfied.
Just 14% are satisfied with Douglas Ross as Scottish Tory leader, while 44% are dissatisfied.
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