THE sleaze scandals engulfing Boris Johnson may indicate his luck is “beginning to run out”, experts say.
The Prime Minister is facing intense scrutiny over the redecoration of his No 11 living quarters, with reports suggesting as much as £200,000 was spent and three inquiries launched into how the revamp was funded.
Yesterday it emerged Conservative Party staff have been given one week to hand over all communication related to the renovations.
An email from human resources about the Electoral Commission’s inquiry told them: “You are put on notice that this is a criminal investigation”, according to reports.
Johnson has also faced a storm of controversy over reports he said he would rather see “bodies pile high” than take the country into a third Covid lockdown – remarks which he has denied.
And the Tories have also been accused of handing out “crony” contracts worth billions of pounds to friends of the party during the coronavirus pandemic.
Dr Sean Kippin, a lecturer in politics at the University of Stirling, said: “The recent scandals around Boris Johnson and the Conservative Party don’t represent a mortal danger to his premiership just yet, but we may be beginning to see his luck run out.
“Increasingly, we are seeing ministers survive scandals that previously would have resulted in resignations, including flagrant breaches of the Ministerial Code.
“Despite the negative publicity these have generated, the Conservatives’ popularity in England hasn’t suffered.”
But he added: “However, by dint of their sheer number and severity, this latest round of revelations which centre on personal impropriety, public sector “cronyism”, and bombastic infighting could create a critical mass of scandal which begins to harm the Tories’ electoral prospects.”
Johnson has attempted to dismiss the row over refurbishments to the flat where he lives with fiancee Carrie Symonds as a “farrago of nonsense”. He says he “personally” paid for the renovations but has refused to say whether he received an initial donation from the Conservative Party to cover the costs.
Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University London, said: “‘Cash for cushions and curtains’ can seem a bit trivial, not least because it doesn’t – for the most part – involve taxpayer’s money.
“But it contributes to the Conservatives’ persistent brand problem in the sense of reminding people that they don’t know how the other half lives.
“And the involvement of the Electoral Commission considerably ups the ante: if laws have been broken and Johnson’s seen to have tried to hide the fact, then that’s not a good look.”
The UK coronavirus death toll is the highest in Europe, with Johnson facing criticism over delaying lockdowns. He has denied that he told a meeting in Downing Street: “Let the bodies pile high in their thousands” in a heated discussion about a third lockdown.
Bale said: “It reminds people that, although the Johnson governments’ bet on vaccines paid off, its delay to lockdown at the end of last year cost tens of thousands of lives and make it look, frankly, as if the Prime Minister was prepared to live with that.
“Given that literally hundreds of thousands, indeed maybe even a million, is related to or knew someone who died, then that could upset a lot of people directly – and a lot more indirectly.”
Bale also pointed out that Labour leader Keir Starmer had “trapped” Johnson into denying he said it in the Commons – and if it later emerges he has lied to Parliament it could be a resigning matter.
He added: “As to whether Johnson will survive that depends partly on whether the Faustian pact the Tory Party entered into when they elected him leader still looks to be paying off.
“They get a morally bankrupt PM who all too often brings politics and the party into disrepute but the upside is that, as a loveable rogue to his admirers, he keeps winning them elections. Next weeks’ locals will be a useful test of all that.”
A poll by YouGov appeared to suggest the flat scandal has not damaged the Prime Minister in the eyes of UK voters, with the Tories extending their lead over Labour from 10 to 11 points this week.
Ivor Gaber, professor of political journalism at the University of Sussex, said there was a question of why it was not “cutting through” to the public, but added the feeling of not being able to trust Johnson might have an impact in the longer term.
He pointed to the example of John Major’s Tory Government, which lost the election in 1997, five years after “Black Wednesday”, when the UK crashed out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism.
“People didn’t understand the exchange rate mechanism, but they just knew the Tories had screwed it up; it took a long time for this to enter the public consciousness but it did eventually,” Gaber said. “All the stories about Tory sleaze are going to run and run, so my prediction eventually they will be damaged.”
Gaber said it was difficult to anticipate what would happen as Johnson was a “one-off” as a Prime Minister.
“At the moment people are still just shrugging their shoulders saying ‘Oh that’s just Boris’,” he said. “No-one said of Major, ‘Oh that’s just John’.
“But I think it could all get mixed up with the pandemic, Greensill, Cameron, new wallpaper, Covid deaths, incompetence – it could all come together and bring Johnson down.”
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