OVER the last two weeks our reporters have been travelling across Scotland, talking to candidates and voters in the tightest constituencies ahead of the May 6 election.
Abbi Garton and Kathleen Nutt have been in seats including Ayr, Dumbarton, Edinburgh Central and Aberdeenshire West to find out what’s going on in the run-up to the crucial vote.
Here are the top 10 battleground constituencies to keep an eye on as the results come in from Friday morning, in order of biggest to smallest majority.
10) Edinburgh Western (2016 win: Alex Cole-Hamilton, LibDems)
Edinburgh Western may be a tough seat for the SNP to take, but Sarah Masson believes being the only pro-EU candidate could secure her the win. The 29-year-old is up against incumbent LibDem Alex Cole-Hamilton, 43, who was elected in 2016 with a majority of only 2960 votes.
The seat has historically been LibDem in four out of five elections since devolution, except for when it was taken by Colin Keir for the SNP in 2011, and is one of the key battlegrounds that could secure a pro-independence majority in Holyrood.
9) Eastwood (2016 win: Jackson Carlaw, Scottish Conservatives)
Eastwood is a two-horse race between the Tories and the SNP – and Colm Merrick is confident he can oust Jackson Carlaw from his constituency seat.
The seat historically elected Labour’s Ken Macintosh as its MSP before Carlaw won the seat in 2016, and there are only 1611 votes needed to swing it to the SNP for the first time.
8) Dumfriesshire (2016 win: Oliver Mundell, Scottish Conservatives)
Scottish Tory Oliver Mundell’s Dumfriesshire is ripe for the picking by the SNP as young people look set to back independence and regeneration of the neglected market town at the constituency’s heart.
The area has historically been a safe Labour seat but was taken by Mundell in 2016 with only 1230 more votes than SNP candidate Joan McAlpine.
7) East Lothian (2016 win: Iain Gray, Labour)
SNP candidate Paul McLennan hopes focusing on battling climate change and targeting young voters will bag him a win in former Scottish Labour leader Iain Gray’s constituency.
The hotly contested seat in East Lothian has not turned yellow in any Scottish Parliament election since its inception in 1999 but with the voting age now lowered to 16, McLennan said he is “cautiously optimistic” youngsters could make a dent in the 1127 votes that held it for Labour in 2016.
6) Galloway and West Dumfries (2016 win: Finlay Carson, Scottish Conservatives)
Emma Harper is putting health at the front and centre of her campaign to take Tory Finlay Carson’s Galloway seat.
The SNP missed out on winning the seat in 2016 by only 1514 votes, but this time round Harper believes focusing on the rural issues in the area will bring voters around.
The National spoke to Harper in Castle Douglas about the issues affecting the area and why an independence referendum would be good for residents in the constituency.
5) Edinburgh Southern (2016 win: Daniel Johnson, Labour)
CLIMATE change and independence top Edinburgh Southern residents’ concerns as Catriona MacDonald pitches her bid to take the seat back from Labour.
With some international citizens living in Scotland able to vote for the first time in this election, MacDonald has put her knowledge of languages to good use and racked up thousands of views on campaign videos in Chinese, French and Spanish. The seat is filled with those key EU and other international voters, as well as many young people who study in the city or are still at school.
4) Aberdeenshire West (2016 win: Alexander Burnett, Scottish Conservatives)
FERGUS Mutch is confident he can take Aberdeenshire West from Alexander Burnett, and thinks the seat is key to securing an SNP majority in Holyrood.
Burnett only had a majority of 900 votes in 2016, and after reducing Andrew Bowie’s majority in the overlapping Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine seat in the 2019 general election to just 800 from 7950 in the 2017 election, Mutch thinks he’s in with a good chance.
3) Ayr (2016 win: John Scott, Scottish Conservatives)
SIOBHIAN Brown says she can bring “energy and enthusiasm” to Ayr and the surrounding area as she takes on Scotland’s longest-serving Tory MSP.
John Scott has held the seat since he won the first Holyrood by-election in 2000, and his reputation in the coastal constituency is a looming factor in the tight race – with only 750 votes in it. But, Brown thinks she’s in with a chance and that the area is desperately in need of change.
2) Edinburgh Central (2016 win: Ruth Davidson, Scottish Conservatives)
EDINBURGH Central is within the SNP’s grasp as Angus Robertson puts international voters at the heart of his campaign to take the seat that has been Ruth Davidson’s for the last five years.
The right to vote was extended in Scotland in February last year to include foreign nationals and refugees, and there are around 7200 of those newly registered in the capital. Robertson thinks this is key to taking the seat from the Tories, who only won by a margin of 610 votes in 2016.
The National spoke to Robertson in the Meadows, which became a hub for those in the city while coronavirus restrictions were in place, to talk about the constituency and his bid to be an MSP.
1) Dumbarton (2016 win: Jackie Baillie, Scottish Labour)
THE SNP are facing a tough fight tomorrow to take Scotland’s most marginal Holyrood constituency from Labour.
Party veteran Jackie Baillie has been the MSP for Dumbarton since 1999, though the 4758 majority she won then was slashed to just 109 at the 2016 election.
On paper the numbers should make it an easy win for the SNP.
However, it would seem the pro-Union parties and Tory voters in particular in the area are intent on playing hardball.
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