DUE to the pandemic it's been a strange election campaign, and an equally strange results day - or more exactly days. Instead of the political junkie sitting up all night and waking up bleary eyed to the results. We have instead been treated to the electoral results equivalent of a protracted root canal treatment without any anaesthetic. Results are slowly dripping in and by teatime the day after the vote it's still not clear what the final result is going to be in detail. Scottish political anoraks have been reduced to feeling like annoying children in the back seat of the cart, chorusing, "Are we there yet?" at five minute intervals.
However the broad picture is now apparent. The SNP is definitely going to form the next Scottish government. This will be the fourth consecutive victory for the SNP, but it seems that the party is going to struggle to achieve an outright majority in its own right. However there have been a couple of significant SNP gains in the constituency vote. The SNP took West Lothian from Labour and also took Ayr from the Conservatives. On a personal note as a recent transplantee to South Ayrshire from the solidly Yes city of Glasgow I am delighted that I once again have an SNP constituency MSP, because if the Conservatives had managed to hang on to the seat with an increased majority I'd probably have had another stroke.
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It also seems certain by now that by tomorrow evening Scotland will have elected a pro independence majority to Holyrood. Despite the media focus on an SNP majority - what really proves a mandate for another referendum is a majority for all the pro independence parties combined. It should not be forgotten that the electoral system used for Holyrood is designed make majority governments very difficult if not impossible to achieve.
There has been a clear pattern developing of tactical voting - but towards different parties in different areas. There has been a lot of talk in this election campaign about tactical voting on the list in order to maximise representation from pro-independence parties but it seems that it's opponents of independence who have been voting tactically in the constituency vote, swinging behind the candidate best placed to unseat the SNP. Although the unionist parties have eaten into the SNP's majority in the seats the SNP held, they have so far failed to unseat any SNP MSPs. Only two seats had changed hands by teatime on Friday., both SNP gains. It's still possible as this piece is being written that some other constituency seats could fall to the SNP, the BBC is reporting that it's looking very tight for the Conservatives in Jackson Carlaw's seat in Eastwood. If the SNP can take the seat it would significantly boost the party's chances of winning a historic overall majority.
Tomorrow's results, when the rest of the constituency seats are called as well as the 56 regional list seats, are going to be crucial. If the Greens do as well as the polls have forecast they could be set to return a significant bloc of pro-independence MSPs which would make it unarguable that Scotland has voted for parties which want another independence referendum.
The great unknown as yet is how the Alba party has performed. Is the stage set for a triumphal return to Holyrood for Alex Salmond and a significant group of Alba MSPs, or will Alba fail to make the impact that its vociferous support on social media would suggest? There are a few straws in the wind, and while it is far too early to be certain, these early signs do not look promising for Alba. A handful of constituencies across Scotland have announced the regional list figures for the seat - these figures will be aggregated with the figures from the other constituencies in the region. Alba has achieved 2.1% of the regional list vote in Aberdeen Donside, 1.3% in Hamilton, 0.8% in Orkney, 2.2% in Na h-Eileanan an Iar, and 1.5% in Clydebank & Milngavie.
READ MORE: Scottish election came 'too soon for Alba', Kenny MacAskill says
Of course this picture may change radically once the full results are known tomorrow, but if these results are replicated across the other constituencies in each of the four regions these constituencies are a part of, Alba would fail to win any seats in the new parliament. However given that the dominant picture from this election is that there is no national pattern but rather a series of very different regional votes,it would be both foolish and premature to discount Alba entirely.
Meanwhile in England the story is of a victorious Conservative party and a Labour party that has failed to make any impact on the electorate despite being opposed by an incompetent Conservative government which has presided over 125,000 covid deaths and which is mired in multiple allegations of corruption and wrong doing. Voters in England have bought into the English nationalist pro-Brexit message of the Conservatives. Voters in Scotland look set to return a majority pro-independence Parliament and want to revisit the question of independence in another referendum.
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