THE sense of frustration in the Yes movement right now is palpable and I share that frustration.
The movement woke slowly (too slowly) following the 2011 SNP Scottish election victory that delivered indyref1 and by September 2014 it was wide awake, only to lose. Independence moved from a dream to a plan, but then there was no way to implement that plan, to achieve that vision of a better Scotland.
Seven years have passed and many of the most active and dedicated independence supporters have let their frustration define their actions. They didn’t want to wait till after Brexit, they don’t want to wait till after the current health crisis and the economy has reopened. Those frustrations are understandable and are voiced repeatedly within the social media echo chambers of the Yes movement, thus they grow in complexity and intensity, then in toxicity and it is sapping the energy of the Yes movement.
However, those social media echo chambers are not the real world and what seems fact on a Facebook page populated by dedicated Yessers is often the exact opposite of what is happening in the real world. To undecided and potential Yes voters the conflict within the Yes movement is off-putting, it is one of the reasons that Yes polling has fallen from 58% in January 21 to a low last month of 48%.
Although we may not want to wait till the health crisis is under control, the vast majority of Scottish voters do and Believe in Scotland polling includes the majority of those who would vote Yes.
The image to the right demonstrates where voters stand on the constitution. The poll conducted for Believe in Scotland by Panelbase shows that a third of Scottish voters could swing either way. Failing to acknowledge that is the single biggest mistake that the Yes movement can make. We poll regularly to understand the mood of voters and so we base our messaging and campaigning on what the undecided need to hear, not on what gets the Yes movement whooping.
Our April poll found 51% Yes but Yes support can be seen to be highly segmented after we effectively asked “Just how Yes are you?”. We used a scale of 0-10, 0 being completely committed to the Union and 10 completely to independence.
Some 25% would vote Yes no matter what, their support for independence is guaranteed and they make up the most active on social media and the real world activists. The Yes vote can also rely on those that responded eight and nine and so 37% is locked in, BUT 7% of those currently supporting independence could still change their minds.
The 14% undecided could go either way and if you add those responding between three and seven, we see that 30% of Scottish voters are up for grabs in a referendum. That 30% of undecided and soft Yes or No voters gets to dictate the pace of independence, not hardcore Yessers. If they think the referendum shouldn’t be until after the health crisis then it can’t be or we could lose.
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Conversely, if Westminster sought to force an early referendum thinking they would win, then they would lose the undecided.
The good news is that whereas locked-in Yes support amounts to 37%, locked-in commitment to the Union is lower at 32% and 2% more (9%) of Union supporters are vulnerable to changing their minds.
Our polling has also helped us understand the issues that move the undecided, to even those answering three and four on the Unionist side.
Offer a resilient and progressive wellbeing-based approach to the economics of independence and to end pensioner poverty and the polls move dramatically to Yes. For now, however, the economic case based on the Sustainable Growth Commission is outdated and made redundant by the economic impact of the health crisis
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Renewing the economic case to a wellbeing approach that will frame independence as crucial to recovery is the key.
WHY has support for independence fallen?
Firstly, because of the loss of a united positive Yes-front being shown to the undecided and soft Yessers. Secondly, the lack of a believable wellbeing-based approach to independence that responds to people’ worries about recovery.
Thirdly, the health crisis and Brexit means people are scunnered, worried about their jobs and wages and the economy and when they are worried, they resist change.
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It’s that simple. The people we need to convince to vote Yes want to hear that the economy is bouncing back and to feel that they are not living through a crisis before they will be open to change. If we are patient, we win.
Sure, the SNP got the economic plan wrong initially, but they do seem to be listening now and changes are afoot; the recent Social Justice and Fairness Commission is, for example, incompatible with the Sustainable Growth Commission.
Sure, the SNP’s communication with the Yes movement has been woeful. They are highly successful at being a political party but seem to have no idea how to be a political party at the heart of a movement.
A vocal but tiny minority even think that the SNP don’t want independence or they are more interested in staying in power than in independence. However, that is oxymoronic – if the SNP do not deliver an independence referendum before the scheduled 2024 General Election, then they will not be able to win that election as the party would be torn apart by that failure.
We are committed – there will be a referendum between autumn 2022 at the earliest and autumn 2023 at the latest (likely September 2023).
Before then, the Yes movement needs to find the strength to be patient, to end the public negativity, to engage in meaningful conversations, to forgive No voters and some Yessers. To heal, to unite, to lay the foundations of an irresistible campaign and win independence for Scotland.
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Callum Baird, Editor of The National
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