WHERE to now for Scotland and independence? The dust has settled after the election and that dust is looking quite undisturbed. We now surely need a “backstop” ballot box plan, to determine the democratic view of the people if a referendum, which no-one can still guarantee, does not happen by 2026.

Two months after the election, the Scottish Government has not yet “formally” asked for a Section 30 order from the UK Government to grant it unambiguous powers to hold a referendum on independence.

However, from all other signals on the issue – and the only letter on the matter of which I am aware it has responded to, the one I wrote in June, (which only took 20 minutes of personal time to compose) – the UK Government response has been a clear and flat “no”.

This is the same response it gave the SNP Scottish Government after the landslide of seats won in the December 2019 General Election.

If the Scottish Government does go through the motions of asking for a Section 30, I doubt any bookmaker, would accept a bet on the inevitable outcome – which will be another flat “no”. This leaves us with the hope that the Scottish Parliament has the power to legislate for a referendum. And if it does legislate, we must hope that the courts do not interrupt and hold up the process for long. There is the added risk that Westminster moves the goalposts and removes the powers in the meantime.

In fairness, no-one in the Scottish Government prior to the election in May guaranteed a referendum during this parliamentary term, only their wish and desire for one to take place. Indeed Michael Russell, then constitutional affairs secretary, on three separate occasions conceded to me that there was no guarantee of a referendum during this parliament.

Hopefully, my fears are wrong, but we may be likely to find out sooner or later that we cannot in fact hold a referendum, as the Scottish Parliament is not strong enough.

Of course, from a political management point of view, the cynic might say that it may be better to find this out later rather than sooner. Sooner destroys hope for years and perhaps leaves many activists angry. Finding out later keeps hope alive and a manageable calm in the meantime.

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Regardless, there is no plan B if the ballot boxes cannot be used at a referendum, as such an option, (or of course a “secret strategy”) was not mandated by the people at the Holyrood election and we may have snookered ourselves.

Now is the time to suggest solutions to this problem. Obviously, the ballot boxes will indeed have to speak and if they cannot be used in a referendum then we should prepare to use the same ballot boxes to vote for independence directly at the next Scottish Parliament election in May 2026 – the Independence Backstop Vote.

Such a policy would show the side led by the Tory UK Government that the independence option cannot be taken off the table and it might be better for them to fight independence at a referendum, and thus concede the referendum they currently feel they don’t have to have, rather than an election where independence would be directly be mandated.

The Independence Backstop Vote idea allows those on our side, the voices who told us in 2019 that Plan A was working and we didn’t need a Plan B, another four years and 10 months to make it so. We can do little else in the meantime anyway.

However, if they are incorrect, and having worked diligently and sincerely on their preference, it gives a route off the hamster wheel to ask the people about independence directly.

It might be time to accept that May 2026 could be our next shot for independence at the ballot box.

It is certainly something to bring to the SNP party conference as an insurance policy that we do not go any longer than five years without employing the ballot boxes for independence.