THE tide of Scottish nationalism is in “serious retreat” and independence supporters are “deflated and spent”.
That was the cry from Unionist commentators last week, who have been quick to seize on quietness around the independence campaign as evidence it is waning fast.
After winning the election in May this year, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon outlined a plan for the first 100 days which set out that leading Scotland out of the pandemic would be her most important priority.
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With that time drawing to a close and Covid restrictions increasingly being lifted, some Yes supporters have also been left wondering at a recent lack of movement around progressing to the promised second referendum.
Last week, for example, Alex Salmond’s Alba party announced its 6000th member. Moira Brown (below), who had been a member of the SNP for 65 years, said one of the reasons she joined Alba was wanting faster progress to Scottish independence.
It was also recently reported a Freedom of Information request to the Scottish Government confirmed no civil servants have worked on the case for independence since work was paused when the pandemic hit in March 2020.
So what is happening to the campaign? Alex Kerr, SNP NEC member for Glasgow, points to the recent appointment of Michael Russell to head up the party’s independence unit as an example of the work that is being undertaken.
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“Fundamentally, we need to get out of the pandemic as the First Minister said,” he said.
“But that doesn’t mean we can’t be doing work. So Mike Russell’s taken over the independence unit and I am sure we will be hearing plenty from him. He is an absolute stalwart of the movement.
“However it has to be balanced as well – we have to wait for the vaccines to do their work and normality to return to some extent before we can use the full suite of campaigning.”
In one of the first signals since the election of a restarting of the push for independence, Sturgeon last month shared a video which outlines the digital resources available to the Yes movement to help with campaigning.
This prompted criticism from the Tories who said she should be focused on the pandemic instead.
READ MORE: What are the SNP really doing to prepare for Scottish independence?
Kerr said the digital campaign reflected that one of the crucial aspects of the campaign would be using the grassroots of the independence movement to boost support for Yes.
NOT everyone is so positive. One prominent independence supporter told the Sunday National: “In political strategy terms what’s happening is nonsensical and a joke, it’s not serious.
“It’s 100% targeted at persuading dissatisfied activists, the things that are involved in the campaigning that’s going on right now are in no way designed to do the things we need to do to change the voting patterns in Scotland.
“You cannot disentangle the campaigning side of independence from the preparation side of independence.
“If you look at what are our biggest barriers, they are not more infographics. It’s about being able to reassure people about what we are doing on the Border, currency etc. They are inseparable, I frankly wouldn’t even bother with the first part until you’ve started work on the second.”
Others insist that preparation work for a second referendum is going on behind the scenes. Former MP Roger Mullin, who also sits on the party’s NEC, told the Sunday National he is working on two “significant research projects”, the results of which will be announced later this year.
“One of the projects I lead is currently looking to tap into specific areas of expertise amongst the membership, so the more we can enhance the talent base and levels of engagement, the better,” he said.
“My focus has always been on preparing, not just for the campaign ahead, but also the transition to independence. We need to win, and we need to prepare to win.”
ROBERT Rosie, the convener of YSI North East and co-organiser for the Aberdeen Independence Movement, said there was still a way to go in recovering from Covid – but once restrictions are fully lifted it will be a “green light to go for independence”.
He argued that the Yes movement’s biggest strength is grassroots activists and that is where the focus should currently be on.
“You can pay for all the targeted advertising in the world, but it can’t compete with the hard work that independence supporters put in on the streets and online,” he said.
“In our current position, what we need to be doing is investing in our activists to ensure they develop the skills and knowledge required to be effective advocates for independence.
“While we’re waiting for restrictions to fully lift, this is the perfect opportunity for pro-independence parties and organisations to focus on ensuring that our activists will be the best they can be for when the referendum comes round.”
He said much of this work was ongoing, with a network of organisers and campaigners in the SNP doing “huge amounts” to help educate the movement on how to structure effective physical and digital campaigns.”
But he added: “There’s always more than can be done, and I think it’s incumbent on all of us in the movement to take a moment to consider how we can improve upon our own campaign skills, pass our knowledge onto others in the movement or even recruit more activists to join the cause.”
YET others say the crucial missing element is definitive answers to what an independent Scotland will look like.
“The promotion video the First Minister tweeted about campaigning is all very well, but nobody is going to be able to go out and campaign successfully if we haven’t got the answers to the questions people are going to ask on the doorstep,” one SNP committee member said.
“I think we want to see answers to the questions and a plan – the response I saw recently was we will develop a plan when we get to the referendum. That is no good.
“Until we can start providing people with answers and demonstrate we have talked about things and there is even the general outline of plan, then we are not going to manage to move the opinion polls.
“If you say we are not going to do anything until it gets to 60% – well it is not going to get to 60% on its own.
“It is only going to get to 60% if we persuade more people – and those ‘more people’ have got questions and they need answers to those questions.
“I don’t know why there aren’t. It is a mystery. I don’t think answering the questions is very difficult.”
Kerr said no-one was happy with the situation the pandemic has brought – but argues most SNP members are happy with “where we are at the moment”.
“Obviously being an SNP member you want independence, we all want independence,” he said.
“So I think as we start to recover from the pandemic and as we start to move forward with independence, I think the membership will be pretty happy.”
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