Scotland in Union's latest independence poll questioned by experts

Nicola Sturgeon recently announced her intention to hold a second vote on the constitutional issue by the end of 2023, assuming the Covid pandemic has passed.

A poll released today and commissioned by No campaigners Scotland in Union suggests that 52% of the Scots are opposed to having a vote in the next two years. 

However, the Survation poll used wording which had been changed from the standard question, with Yes or No changed to Remain or Leave. 

Polling expert John Curtice has been among those to question the relevance of the results, insisting the survey shows "no change" in attitudes towards indyref2.

The SNP accused the campaign group of asking "loaded questions", while the Greens said Scots had made their "priorities clear" in the Holyrood election in May. 

READ MORE: 'Not news': Sir John Curtice's analysis of Scotland in Union's independence poll

Scotland in Union found that 38% backed a second poll in the next 24 months, while 10% did not know.

The poll also found that 52% of people asked would vote to remain in the UK should the referendum be held tomorrow, 39% would vote to leave the UK.

The results suggest No voters oppose an earlier indyref2, while Yes voters would like to see one. 

Instead of asking if Scotland should be an independent country, it asked: “If there was a referendum with the question 'Should Scotland remain part of the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?' how would you vote?”

The British Polling Council’s guidelines for reporting on polls make clear that the wording of such questions “certainly” matters.

It goes on: “If [the respondents] had been asked different questions about the same subject, they might have given different answers.

“Any claims that public attitudes have changed should be based on comparing the results of two or more polls that have asked the same question.”

This poll found that, when undecided voters (9%) are excluded, 57% of Scots would vote “remain” and 43% “leave”.

These results are identical to the previous result, in March of this year, which was widely panned by politicians and pollsters, including Curtice, for not using the standardised question.

Tweeting today, Curtice (above) said the poll was “far from the first to find that voters are opposed to an early indyref2” and suggested there had been “no change” in Scottish attitudes towards independence.

Writing for The National, pollster Mark McGeoghegan adds: "A poll is no replacement for the results of a democratic election.

"On the back of today’s poll, Scotland in Union’s Pamela Nash has claimed that voters oppose the Scottish Government’s plans to hold a referendum before the end of 2023.

"A forced-choice poll allows Scotland in Union to claim that Scots don’t want that referendum, and for them that is enough."

McGeoghegan goes on: "While polls can tell us a great deal about public opinion and attitudes, they cannot represent the will of the people. For that we hold elections, and the Scottish Parliament election resulted in a majority in favour of a second referendum on independence – no poll changes that fundamental political fact."

Holyrood's pro-independence parties echoed McGeoghegan in their comments, insisting that such a poll was no replacement for the elections of earlier this year.

The SNP hit out at Scotland in Union for "asking loaded questions", saying their attempt to "conflate independence with the ‘Leave-Remain’ formulation of the Brexit vote just won’t wash".

The spokesperson went on: “It was only 4 months ago that the people of Scotland voted and that vote provided a cast-iron democratic mandate for an independence referendum – on top of that, a recent independent opinion poll found majority support for a referendum in the current Holyrood term."

A Redfield and Wilton Strategies poll last month found that 42% of people would support an independence referendum being held in the current Holyrood term, with 40% opposing and 14% neither supporting or opposing. Removing don’t knows, 51% of those expressing an opinion are in support of a "referendum for recovery" being held. 

A spokesperson for the Scottish Greens added: “The people of Scotland made their priorities clear by electing a new government which sees independence as an important part of a green recovery from the pandemic, one which provides a hopeful alternative to Westminster’s Brexit-driven war on the poor from a government dismantling the NHS and denying the climate emergency.”

Pamela Nash (above), the Scotland in Union chief executive, claimed the poll “confirms that Nicola Sturgeon is out of touch with the people of Scotland”.

She went on: “A majority of voters oppose her plans for a divisive second referendum within the next two years, and she should listen to what people are telling her.

“This poll is a timely reminder to Nicola Sturgeon to focus on what really matters to people – the Covid recovery, protecting our NHS, creating jobs, and tackling the climate emergency.”

The poll was conducted by Survation between August 31 and September 1. A total of 1040 people aged over 16 and living in Scotland were interviewed online.