Sir John Curtice's analysis of Scotland in Union independence poll

SiU’s poll asked voters two questions, one on their preferred timescale for a second referendum, and one on their position on Scottish independence.

The first question found a majority of Scots oppose a referendum in the next two years, a timescale suggested by the First Minister assuming Covid has passed.

Curtice explained to The National why that result had little relevance to the ongoing debate.

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He said: “When you ask about referendum support in the next five years, you tend to get a small majority in favour.

“Once you start asking people about shorter time frames like two years virtually all those polls show a majority of all people being against, but of course the crucial thing is what’s the view of Yes voters.

“The point is that there is a fair modicum of Yes voters who do want a referendum but not necessarily quickly.

“That together with the fact that Yes are not ahead in the polls at the moment is every reason for the Yes side not to play it short but to play it long.”

Asked if Yes voters might favour a longer timescale before indyref2 to be more certain of avoiding a second loss, Curtice said that may be the case for some, while others may cite the pandemic, and others a lack of a clear vision from the Scottish Government.

“There are lots of reasons why I could think Yes voters could think it’s sensible to play it long and not play it short, but obviously the polls don’t tell us why some people take that view,” he added.

The SiU poll, conducted by Survation, also asked if people would vote to “Remain” in the UK or “Leave”, a deviation from the standard question which the SNP have condemned as "loaded".

It found that 57% would vote to “Remain” in the UK, in stark contrast to an Opinium poll, also released on Thursday, which found 51% would vote “Yes” to independence.

Curtice said: “[SiU] always ask this question about Remain vs Leave rather than Yes vs No, and this goes back to a debate about the wording of the referendum ballot paper, which they would like to change.

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“It looks to me that two things are true and they’ve been true for a whole range of polls through the election, and this one doesn’t really change the story. At the end of the day, if you are a Yes voter you want a referendum to happen at some point in the next five years, and if you are a No voter, you don’t. Surprise, surprise.”

On the topic of an upcoming referendum campaign, Curtice warned both the pro-Union and pro-independence sides that they have “an awful lot of intellectual work to do … Neither side has really worked out what their case is going to be in a post-Brexit, post-Covid environment”.

The eminent polling professor went on: “We had that surge in independence support last year but it all occurred in a vacuum. Because of Brexit and because of the pandemic we’ve had the occasional fluttering to life of a debate about Scottish independence but … the argument’s been about process rather than about substance.

“The £64,000 question amongst many is what we’re going to do about the Border between Gretna and Berwick if an independent Scotland wishes to rejoin the European Union. That’s a question that has to be answered and it’s a question for both sides to answer because it would depend partly on the attitude of the rest of the UK but we’ve not debated this at all.”

In a blog published on Wednesday, Curtice warned that “the independence movement may need to draw a sharper picture of its vision for an independent Scotland – not only is a hazy one unlikely to be effective at bringing voters on board, but it also runs the risk that it creates an opportunity for the Unionist parties to fill the gap by imprinting an unfavourable picture of what independence might mean in voters’ minds”.

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If the SNP do not find an answer to the Border question, they risk having the Unionists paint a negative vision in that empty space.

Asked if this could see a turning point in an upcoming campaign in the same way as then Chancellor George Osborne’s declaration that an independent Scotland could not use the pound had in 2014, Curtice was sceptical.

“I don’t think that that particular manoeuvre was advantageous to the No side,” he said, adding that one of the few times Yes had made progress in the polls was “slightly after George’s statement”.

He went on: “It’s very difficult to persuade people to vote for you on the grounds that you’re willing to deny them what they want, which is what that amounted to.

“No voters wish to keep the pound, so trying to persuade people to vote for your side because you’re not willing to give them what they want is a very, very difficult position to adopt.”