Operation Yellowhammer: How no-deal Brexit 'worst case scenario' came true

Named “Operation Yellowhammer”, the document had been leaked to The Sunday Times the previous month, before MPs demanded its official release.

At the time, ministers insisted that the issues the six-page document said may arise from a no-deal Brexit were just a "worst case scenario".

As it turned out, a no-deal scenario was avoided. On Christmas Eve 2019, Boris Johnson announced that the UK and EU had agreed terms which he claimed were a “good deal for the whole of Europe”.

READ MORE: Kevin McKenna: I've obtained the secret Brexit Yellowhammer documents

However, regardless of Johnson's Brexit deal, many of Yellowhammer’s “reasonable worst case assumptions” have played out anyway.

Here is a look at what Operation Yellowhammer predicted for a “reasonable worst case” scenario, and what has actually happened since the UK left the EU ...

ENERGY:

What Yellowhammer warned:

Within months or years, the UK could face significant price increases for households and businesses.

What the government were doing to prepare:

Nothing. The Institute for Government said the Tories plans for “mitigations are not clear”.

What’s actually happened:

Wholesale gas prices have risen by 250% since January - with a 70% rise in August alone.

Ofgem, the UK’s energy regulator, has increased the energy price cap twice this year, hitting families across Britain with steeper bills heading into winter.

Bulb, Britain’s sixth-largest provider, has requested a government bail-out, and industry sources have said that the 70 energy companies across the UK at the start of 2021 could be down to just 10 by the year’s end.

READ MORE: Five times Better Together promised Scots cheaper energy in the UK

FOOD AND DRINK:

What Yellowhammer warned:

Although no overall food shortages were expected, choice and availability were expected to decrease. Certain fresh foods would decrease, and an increase in prices was also expected.

What the government were doing to prepare:

It asked businesses to stockpile, but said that food is not a “category one” item and so would not be brought in using ships or planes procured to import medicines or other more important items.

What’s actually happened:

Food shortages have been seen in supermarkets across the UK, as well as hitting restaurant chains and pubs. Fizzy drinks have been particularly impacted by a shortage of CO2, with favourites such as Irn-Bru being hit.

Crops grown in the UK have been left to rot in the fields with a shortage of staff to help out in the harvest, further impacting on supply chains.

Ian Wright, the head of the Food and Drink Federation, warned that such shortages are “going to get worse” and that they will be “permanent”.

TRAFFIC AND FUEL:

What Yellowhammer warned:

Delays hitting border crossings in places such as Kent could lead to long traffic queues and affect fuel distribution in localised areas, while customer behaviour could lead to local shortages in other parts of the country.

What the government were doing to prepare:

Nothing. If they did something, it was redacted.

What’s actually happened:

Almost exactly as predicted, shortages felt in the south-east of England led to a widespread wave of “panic-buying”. That in turn led to at least half of all petrol stations in the UK running out of fuel.

While some Conservatives have insisted there is no shortage, reality has begged to differ.

UK ministers have pinned the blame for the fuel shortages on people panic-buying, ignoring that the behaviour had been set off by the impacts of a Brexit for which the government had not prepared.

WATER:

What Yellowhammer warned:

Public water companies were “likely to remain largely unaffected” by a no-deal Brexit, but impacts on the chemical supply chain may become an issue.

What the government were doing to prepare:

Nothing. The document says that water companies are well prepared and well stocked, and that any impact will be “localised, affecting up to 100,000s of people”.

It says that “urgent action” may need to be taken in the event of supply chain failure, but does not say what this is or if any preparations had occurred.

What’s actually happened:

Expected shortages in the chemical supply chain, though not yet impacting on the treatment of sewage, have led the government to relax its rules. Firms unable to get the necessary chemicals will be allowed to dump water into English rivers even if it has not been properly treated.

READ MORE: Scotland will not allow untreated waste to be dumped into rivers

STAFF SHORTAGES:

What Yellowhammer warned:

Astonishingly, the government apparently didn’t see staff shortages coming, even as a result of a no-deal Brexit.

What the government were doing to prepare:

Nothing at all.

What’s actually happened:

Staff shortages across key sectors including health and social care, agriculture, and haulage among others have led to shortages of products from food to fuel across the whole of the UK.

Industry has said that these come as a result of a "structural change" in the UK labour market directly caused by Brexit.

To try and allay one aspect of this wider issue, the Tories have decided to bring in an emergency visa to allow 5000 HGV drivers to work in the UK until Christmas Eve. The plan has been widely derided.

PROTESTS:

What Yellowhammer warned:

A rise in public disorder and community tension was likely to be seen across the UK, with protests and counter-protests absorbing significant amounts of police resource.

What the government were doing to prepare:

Nothing. The Institute for Government said the Tories plans for “mitigations are not clear”.

What’s actually happened:

The onset of the coronavirus pandemic meant large outdoor gatherings were banned to prevent the spread of the virus, negating the ability of any groups to hold protests or counter-protests for the majority of 2020 and into 2021.

TRADE:

What Yellowhammer warned: 

The UK government document foresaw a number of problems on the French side of the Channel, from “limited space” at ports to drivers being unprepared for the nation’s customs.

Annually, around 4.2 million lorries passed through Dover and the Eurotunnel. This was expected to drop by 40-60% for the first six months, before flow returned to 30-50% lower than pre-Brexit levels.

Lorry drivers could expect to face delays of between 36 and 60 hours at the border.

What the government were doing to prepare:

There was a lot of focus on preparations needed in France. The UK government planned to stop lorries entering Kent unless they had documents to travel on to the continent already prepared.

What’s actually happened: 

The predicted queues blocking up Kent's roads have not materialised, but extra checks (even with a Brexit deal in place) have led to long delays at the border. Some drivers reported being made to wait in excess of three days.

Scotland's seafood producers had to ditch stock due to the waits, as they relied on getting produce into Europe within 24 hours. 

Bureacracy has also gone through the roof, a single delivery can now require up to 80 pages of documentation, compared to the simple one-page delivery note and invoice that went with shippings pre-Brexit.